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作者：Jones, Charles I.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：What explains the enormous differences in incomes across countries? This paper returns to two old ideas: linkages and complementarity. First, linkages between firms through intermediate goods deliver a multiplier similar to the one associated with capital in a neoclassical growth model. Because the intermediate goods share of output is about one-half, this multiplier is substantial. Second, just as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, problems along a production chain can sharply red...
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作者：Fang, Lei; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：Recent empirical work finds a negative correlation between product market regulation and aggregate employment. We examine the effect of product market regulations on hours worked in a benchmark model of time allocation. Product market regulations affect market work in effectively the same fashion as labor or consumption taxes. For product market regulations to affect aggregate market work, the key driving force is the size of income transfers associated with the regulations, and the key propag...
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作者：Beechey, Meredith J.; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Levin, Andrew T.
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank; Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of US inflation. Analysis of daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads, which gauge compensatio...
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作者：Ravenna, Federico; Walsh, Carl E.
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We derive a linear-quadratic model that is consistent with sticky prices and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the second-order approximation to the welfare of the representative agent depends on inflation and gaps that involve current and lagged unemployment. Our approximation makes explicit how welfare costs are generated by the presence of search frictions. These costs are distinct from the costs associated with relative price dispersion and fluctuations in con...
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作者：Longstaff, Francis A.; Pan, Jun; Pedersen, Lasse H.; Singleton, Kenneth J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; Stanford University
摘要：We study the nature of sovereign credit risk using an extensive set of sovereign CDS data. We find that the majority of sovereign credit risk can be linked to global factors. A single principal component accounts for 64 percent of the variation in sovereign credit spreads. Furthermore, sovereign credit spreads are more related to the US stock and high-yield markets than they are to local economic measures. We decompose credit spreads into their risk premium and default risk components. On aver...
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作者：Berge, Travis J.; Jorda, Oscar
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We ...
