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作者：Krishnamurthy, Arvind
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I describe two amplifications mechanisms that operate during crises and discuss the benefits of policy given each mechanism. The first mechanism involves asset prices and balance sheets. A negative shock to agents' balance sheets causes them to liquidate assets, lowering prices, further deteriorating balance sheets and amplifying the shock. The second mechanism involves investors' Knightian uncertainty. Unusual shocks to untested financial innovations increase agents' uncertainty about their i...
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作者：Snell, Andy; Thomas, Jonathan P.
作者单位：University of Edinburgh
摘要：This paper analyses a model in which firms cannot pay discriminate based on year of entry. It is assumed that workers can costlessly quit at any time, while firms are committed to contracts. We solve for the dynamics of wages and unemployment, and show that real wages display a degree of downward rigidity and do not necessarily clear the labor market. Using sectoral productivity data from the post-war US economy, we assess the ability of the model to match the actual unemployment series. We al...
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作者：Liang, Ming-Yih
作者单位：National Taiwan University
摘要：We examine two behavioral traits essential to Confucianism, and put forward hypotheses as to whether these behavioral traits impede or are conducive to leading or follower mode growth. A dynamic leader-follower general equilibrium model with appropriately specified Confucian parameters is shown to generate results that correspond to some of the main features of East Asian economies: their miracle growths, subsequent slowdowns, trade surpluses, and persistent accumulations of foreign exchange r...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Columbia University; Australian National University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The value of communication is analyzed in a model in which agents' expectations need not be consistent with central bank policy. Without communication, the Taylor principle is not sufficient for macroeconomic stability: divergent learning dynamics are possible. Three communication strategies are contemplated to ensure consistency between private forecasts and monetary policy strategy: communicating the precise details of policy; communicating only the variables on which policy decisions are co...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirica...
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作者：Comin, Diego; Easterly, William; Gong, Erick
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We assemble a dataset on technology adoption in 1000 BC, 0 AD, and 1500 AD for the predecessors to today's nation states. Technological differences are surprisingly persistent over long periods of time. Our most interesting, strong, and robust results are for the association of 1500 AD technology with per capita income and technology adoption today. We also find robust and significant technological persistence from 1000 BC to 0 AD, and front 0 AD to 1500 AD. The evidence is consistent with a m...
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作者：Djankov, Simeon; Ganser, Tim; McLiesh, Caralee; Ramalho, Rita; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：The World Bank; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We present new data on effective corporate income tax rates in 85 countries in 2004. The data come from a survey, conducted jointly with PricewaterhouseCoopers, of all taxes imposed on the same standardized mid-size domestic firm. In a cross-section of countries, our estimates of the effective corporate tax rate have a large adverse impact on aggregate investment, FDI, and entrepreneurial activity. Corporate tax rates are correlated with investment in manufacturing but not services, as well as...
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作者：Reis, Ricardo; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Columbia University; Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods' prices in the United States since 1959 to separate them into three independent components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, a low-dimensional index of aggregate relative-price changes, and an index of equiproportional changes in all inflation rates that we label pure inflation. We use the estimates to answer two questions. First, what share of the variability of inflation is associated with each compone...
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作者：Philippon, Thomas
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I study the allocation of human capital in an economy with production externalities, financial constraints, and career choices. Agents choose to become entrepreneurs, workers, or financiers. Entrepreneurship has positive externalities but requires the services of financiers. In the second best solution, the financial sector should be taxed in exactly the same way as the nonfinancial sector When direct subsidies to investment and scientific education are not feasible, subsidizing the financial ...
