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作者：Kaplan, Greg; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Pennsylvania; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We assess the degree of consumption smoothing implicit in a calibrated life-cycle version of the standard incomplete-markets model, and we compare it to the empirical estimates of Richard Blundell, Luigi Pistaferri, and Ian Preston (2008) (BPP hereafter) on US data. Households in the data have access to more consumption insurance against permanent earnings shocks than in the model. BPP estimate that 36 percent of permanent shocks are insurable, whereas the model's counterpart of the BPP estima...
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作者：Krishnamurthy, Arvind
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I describe two amplifications mechanisms that operate during crises and discuss the benefits of policy given each mechanism. The first mechanism involves asset prices and balance sheets. A negative shock to agents' balance sheets causes them to liquidate assets, lowering prices, further deteriorating balance sheets and amplifying the shock. The second mechanism involves investors' Knightian uncertainty. Unusual shocks to untested financial innovations increase agents' uncertainty about their i...
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作者：Chamon, Marcos D.; Prasad, Eswar S.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Cornell University
摘要：From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household savings rate in China rose by 7 percentage points, to about one-quarter of disposable income. Savings rates increased across all demographic groups, and the age profile of savings has an unusual pattern in recent years, with younger and older households having relatively high savings rates. We argue that these patterns are best explained by the rising private burden of expenditures on housing, education, and health care. These effects and precauti...
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作者：Snell, Andy; Thomas, Jonathan P.
作者单位：University of Edinburgh
摘要：This paper analyses a model in which firms cannot pay discriminate based on year of entry. It is assumed that workers can costlessly quit at any time, while firms are committed to contracts. We solve for the dynamics of wages and unemployment, and show that real wages display a degree of downward rigidity and do not necessarily clear the labor market. Using sectoral productivity data from the post-war US economy, we assess the ability of the model to match the actual unemployment series. We al...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Dell, Melissa
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We document substantial within-country (cross-municipality) differences in incomes for a large number of countries in the Americas. A significant fraction of the within-country differences cannot he explained by observed human capital. We conjecture that the sources of within-country and between-country differences are related. As a first step toward a unified framework, we propose a simple model incorporating differences in technological know-how across countries and differences in productive...
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作者：Hunt, Jennifer; Gauthier-Loiselle, Marjolaine
作者单位：McGill University; Princeton University
摘要：We measure the extent to which skilled immigrants increase innovation in the United States. The 2003 National Survey of College Graduates shows that immigrants patent at double the native rate, due to their disproportionately holding science and engineering degrees. Using a 1940-2000 state panel, we show that a 1 percentage point increase in immigrant college graduates' population share increases patents per capita by 9-18 percent. Our instrument for the change in the skilled immigrant share i...
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作者：Liang, Ming-Yih
作者单位：National Taiwan University
摘要：We examine two behavioral traits essential to Confucianism, and put forward hypotheses as to whether these behavioral traits impede or are conducive to leading or follower mode growth. A dynamic leader-follower general equilibrium model with appropriately specified Confucian parameters is shown to generate results that correspond to some of the main features of East Asian economies: their miracle growths, subsequent slowdowns, trade surpluses, and persistent accumulations of foreign exchange r...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Columbia University; Australian National University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The value of communication is analyzed in a model in which agents' expectations need not be consistent with central bank policy. Without communication, the Taylor principle is not sufficient for macroeconomic stability: divergent learning dynamics are possible. Three communication strategies are contemplated to ensure consistency between private forecasts and monetary policy strategy: communicating the precise details of policy; communicating only the variables on which policy decisions are co...
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作者：Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper proposes a Ricardian model to understand the short-run and long-run aggregate effects of increased fragmentation and off shoring on rich and poor countries. The short-run analysis shows that, when offshoring is sufficiently high, further increases in offshoring benefit the poor country and hurt the rich country. But these effects may be reversed in the long run as countries adjust their research efforts in response to increased offshoring. In particular, in the long run, the rich co...
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作者：Diewert, Erwin
作者单位：University of British Columbia
