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作者：Faberman, R. Jason; Kudlyak, Marianna
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We use online job application data to study the relationship between search intensity and search duration. The data allow us to control for job seeker composition and the evolution of available job openings over the duration of search. We find that, within an individual search spell, search intensity declines continuously. We also find that longer-duration job seekers search more intensely throughout their search. They tend to be older, male, nonemployed, and live in areas with weaker labor ma...
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作者：Ikeda, Daisuke; Phan, Toan
作者单位：Bank of Japan; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We analyze the relationships between bubbles, capital flows, and economic activities in a rational bubble model with two large open economies. We establish a reinforcing relationship between global imbalances and bubbles. Capital flows from South to North facilitate the emergence and the size of bubbles in the North. Bubbles in the north in turn facilitate South-to-North capital flows. The model can simultaneously explain several stylized features of recent bubble episodes.
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.; Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We build a medium-scale DSGE model and calibrate it to fit the main macroeconomic variables during the US Great Recession. Using it to evaluate the welfare effects of increasing government consumption at the zero lower bound beyond what was actually observed in the data, we reach three main results. First, the increase in government consumption after 2008, albeit small in present value terms, was close to optimal. Second, frontloading the same stimulus would have been welfare-improving. Third,...
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作者：Fan, Jingting
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：I develop a spatial-equilibrium model to quantify the distributional impacts of international trade in an economy with intranational trade and migration costs. Focusing on China, I find that international trade increases both between-region inequality among workers with similar skills and within-region inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, with the former accounting for 75 percent of the overall inequality increase. Ignoring spatial frictions will underestimate trade's impact on th...
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作者：Anzoategui, Diego; Comin, Diego; Gertler, Mark; Martinez, Joseba
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We motivate, develop, and estimate a model with an endogenous TFP mechanism that allows for costly development and adoption of technologies. Our main finding is that a significant fraction of the post-Great Recession fall in productivity was an endogenous phenomenon, suggesting that demand factors played...
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作者：Ottonello, Pablo; Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; New York University
摘要：We study the currency composition of sovereign debt in emerging economies through the lens of a model in which the government lacks commitment regarding debt and monetary policy. High levels of debt in local currency give rise to incentives to dilute debt repayment through currency depreciation. Governments tilt the currency composition of debt toward foreign currency to avoid inflationary costs and real exchange rate distortions, at the expense of forgoing the hedging properties of local curr...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Sotelo, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study how international trade affects manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers when goods and services are traded with different intensities. Manufacturing trade reduces manufacturing prices worldwide, which reduces manufacturing employment if manufactures and services are complements. International trade also raises real income, which reduces manufacturing employment if services are more income elastic than manufactures. Manufacturing production is unskilled-labo...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza; Poilly, Celine
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of Lausanne; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：In the aftermath of the US financial crisis, both a sharp drop in employment and a surge in corporate cash have been observed. In this paper, based on US data, we argue that the negative relationship between the corporate cash ratio and employment is systematic, both over time and across firms. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where heterogenous firms need cash and external liquid funds in their production process. We analyze the dynamic impact of aggregate shocks and the cross-f...
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作者：Andrade, Philippe; Gaballo, Gaetano; Mengus, Eric; Mojon, Benoit
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Paris School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：Central banks' announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between 2011:III and 2012:IV, these two interpretations coexisted despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalize these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs int...
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作者：Karadi, Peter; Reiff, Adam
作者单位：European Central Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We document that the aggregate price level responds flexibly and asymmetrically to large positive and negative value-added tax changes. We present a price-setting model with menu costs, trend inflation, and fat-tailed product-level shocks that is consistent with these observations. The model predicts a flexible price-level response to standard monetary policy shocks because it anticipates a large number of firms on the verge of price adjustment and far from their optimal prices when the shock ...
