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作者：Giacomini, Raffaella; Skreta, Vasiliki; Turen, Javier
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：We formulate a theory of expectations updating that fits the dynamics of accuracy and disagreement in a new survey of professional forecasters. We document new stylized facts, including the puzzling persistence of disagreement as uncertainty resolves. Our theory explains these facts by allowing for different channels of heterogeneity. Agents produce an initial forecast based on heterogeneous priors and are heterogeneously inattentive. Updaters use Bayes' rule and interpret public information u...
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作者：Acharya, Sushant; Wee, Shu Lin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We provide an information-based theory of matching efficiency fluctuations. Rationally inattentive firms have limited capacity to process information and cannot perfectly identify suitable applicants. During recessions, higher losses from hiring unsuitable workers cause firms to be more selective in hiring. When firms cannot obtain sufficient information about applicants, they err on the side of caution and accept fewer applicants to minimize losses from hiring unsuitable workers. Pro-cyclical...
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作者：Alvarez, Jorge A.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：A key feature of developing economies is that wages in agriculture are below those of other sectors. Using Brazilian household surveys and administrative panel data, I use information on workers who switch sectors and workers with multiple jobs to assess the role of worker composition in explaining this gap. The evidence is consistent with the presence of significant intersector sorting in Brazil. A calibrated sorting model can account for the wage gap level observed, as well as its decline, a...
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作者：McGrattan, Ellen R.; Waddle, Andrea
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Richmond
摘要：Using simulations from a multi-country neoclassical growth model, we analyze several post-Brexit scenarios. First, the United Kingdom unilaterally imposes tighter restrictions on FDI and trade from other EU nations. Second, the European Uunion retaliates and imposes the same restrictions on the United Kingdom. Finally, the United Kingdom reduces restrictions on other nations during the post-Brexit transition. Model predictions depend crucially on the policy response of multinationals' investme...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Lippi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Chicago; Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：We present a sticky price model that features the coexistence of many price changes, most of which are temporary, with a modest flexibility of the aggregate price level. Stickiness is introduced in the form of a price plan, namely a set of two prices: either price can be charged at any moment but changing the plan entails a menu cost. We analytically solve for the optimal plan and for the aggregate output response to a monetary shock. We present evidence consistent with the model implications ...
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作者：Boissay, Frederic; Cooper, Russell
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); European University Institute; National Bureau of Economic Research; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Wholesale financial markets reallocate deposits. Because of incentive problems, these flows are limited by endogenous collateral constraints. The composition of collateral matters. The use of inside collateral creates a collateral pyramid: cash flows from one loan are pledged to secure another. Outside collateral, such as treasuries, stabilizes the pyramid. Through collateral pyramids the financial sector sustains a large volume of reallocation across banks, but at the cost of systemic panics....
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作者：Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We show that cyclical fluctuations in search and recruiting intensity are quantitatively important for explaining the weak job recovery from the Great Recession. We demonstrate this result using an estimated labor search model that features endogenous search and recruiting intensity. Since the textbook model with free entry implies constant recruiting intensity, we introduce a cost of vacancy creation, so that firms respond to aggregate shocks by adjusting both vacancies and recruiting intensi...
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作者：Jensen, Henrik; Petrella, Ivan; Ravn, Soren Hove; Santoro, Emiliano
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Warwick
摘要：We document that the United States and other G7 economies have been characterized by an increasingly negative business-cycle asymmetry over the last three decades. This finding can be explained by the concurrent increase in the financial leverage of households and firms. To support this view, we devise and estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model with collateralized borrowing and occasionally binding credit constraints. Improved access to credit increases the likelihood that financial cons...
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作者：Guvenen, Fatih; Kuruscu, Burhanettin; Tanaka, Satoshi; Wiczer, David
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Toronto; University of Queensland; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：What determines the earnings of a worker relative to his peers in the same occupation? What makes a worker fail in one occupation but succeed in another? More broadly, what are the factors that determine the productivity of a worker-occupation match? To help answer questions like these, we propose an empirical measure of multidimensional skill mismatch that is based on the discrepancy between the portfolio of skills required by an occupation and the portfolio of abilities possessed by a worker...
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作者：Ameriks, John; Briggs, Joseph; Caplin, Andrew; Lee, Minjoon; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Tonetti, Christopher
作者单位：The Vanguard Group, Inc.; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carleton University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Stanford University
摘要：Older Americans, even those who are long retired, have strong willingness to work, especially in jobs with flexible schedules. For many, labor force participation near or after normal retirement age is limited more by a lack of acceptable job opportunities or low expectations about finding them than by unwillingness to work longer. This paper establishes these findings using an approach to identification based on strategic survey questions, purposefully designed to complement behavioral data. ...
