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作者：Valchev, Rosen
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：This paper proposes a new explanation for the failure of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) that rationalizes both the classic UIP puzzle and the evidence that the puzzle reverses direction at longer horizons. In the model, excess currency returns arise as compensation for endogenous fluctuations in bond convenience yield differentials. Due to the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy, the impulse response of the equilibrium convenience yield is nonmonotonic, which generates the reversal of t...
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作者：Giacomini, Raffaella; Skreta, Vasiliki; Turen, Javier
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：We formulate a theory of expectations updating that fits the dynamics of accuracy and disagreement in a new survey of professional forecasters. We document new stylized facts, including the puzzling persistence of disagreement as uncertainty resolves. Our theory explains these facts by allowing for different channels of heterogeneity. Agents produce an initial forecast based on heterogeneous priors and are heterogeneously inattentive. Updaters use Bayes' rule and interpret public information u...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Nistico, Salvatore
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Sapienza University Rome; Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：We analyze the effects on inflation and output of unconventional open-market operations due to the possible income losses on the central bank's balance sheet. We first state a general Neutrality Property, and characterize the theoretical conditions supporting it. We then discuss three non-neutrality cases. First, with no treasury's support, sizeable (current or expected) balance sheet losses can undermine the central bank's solvency and should be resolved through an increase in inflation. Seco...
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作者：Carroll, Christopher D.; Crawley, Edmund; Slacalek, Jiri; Tokuoka, Kiichi; White, Matthew N.
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; European Central Bank; International Monetary Fund; University of Delaware
摘要：To match aggregate consumption dynamics, macroeconomic models must generate excess smoothness in consumption expenditures. But microfounded models are calibrated to match micro data, which exhibit no excess smoothness. So standard microfounded models fail to match the macro smoothness facts. We show that the micro and macro evidence are both consistent with a microfounded model where consumers know their personal circumstances but have sticky expectations about the macroeconomy. Aggregate cons...
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作者：Trew, Alex
作者单位：University of Glasgow
摘要：This paper develops a model in which the evolution of the transport sector occurs alongside the growth in trade and output of agricultural and manufacturing firms. Simulation output captures aspects of the historical record of England and Wales over 1710-1881. A number of counterfactuals demonstrate the role that the timing and spatial distribution of infrastructure development play in determining the timing of takeoff. There can be a role for policy in accelerating takeoff through improving i...
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作者：Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：How does central bank lending during a crisis restore confidence? Emergency lending facilities that are opaque (in that names of borrowers are kept secret) raise the perceived average quality of bank assets in the economy, creating an information externality that prevents runs. Stigma (the cost of a bank's participation at the lending facility becoming public) is desirable to implement opacity as an equilibrium outcome, as no bank wants to reveal its participation status. The central bank's ke...
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作者：Acconcia, Antonio; Corsetti, Giancari; Simonelli, Saverio
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; University of Cambridge; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：In Italian regions hit by earthquakes, homeowners typically receive public funds to finance reconstruction. While these funds are strictly tied to reconstruction work, they are in part disbursed up front, leading to significant variation in cash on hand. We exploit this variation to study the effects of liquidity on relatively wealthy households' consumption. We find a large and significant response in the first year that homeowners receive the cash and provide evidence that this response is d...
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作者：Huo, Zhen; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor
作者单位：Yale University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：In sticky wages models (either a la Calvo or a la Rotemberg), labor is solely determined by the demand side. However, a change of circumstances may make labor demand higher than agents' willingness to work. We find that workers are required to work against their will between 15 percent and 30 percent of the time (with 5 percent wage markup, less with higher markups and in Rotemberg models). Estimating models with the minimum of the demand and supply of labor instead of the demand-determined qu...
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作者：Acharya, Sushant; Wee, Shu Lin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We provide an information-based theory of matching efficiency fluctuations. Rationally inattentive firms have limited capacity to process information and cannot perfectly identify suitable applicants. During recessions, higher losses from hiring unsuitable workers cause firms to be more selective in hiring. When firms cannot obtain sufficient information about applicants, they err on the side of caution and accept fewer applicants to minimize losses from hiring unsuitable workers. Pro-cyclical...
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作者：Alvarez, Jorge A.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：A key feature of developing economies is that wages in agriculture are below those of other sectors. Using Brazilian household surveys and administrative panel data, I use information on workers who switch sectors and workers with multiple jobs to assess the role of worker composition in explaining this gap. The evidence is consistent with the presence of significant intersector sorting in Brazil. A calibrated sorting model can account for the wage gap level observed, as well as its decline, a...
