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作者：Ngai, L. Rachel; Pissarides, Christopher A.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We examine the allocation of hours of work across industrial sectors in OECD countries. We find large disparities across three sector groups, one that produces goods without home substitutes, and two others that have home substitutes but are treated differently by welfare policy. We attribute the disparities to the countries' tax and subsidy policies. High taxation substantially reduces hours in sectors that have close home substitutes but less so in other sectors. Subsidies increase hours in ...
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作者：Thesmar, David; Thoenig, Mathias
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; University of Lausanne
摘要：Over the past decades, the real and financial volatility of listed firms has increased, while the volatility of private firms has decreased. We first provide panel data evidence that, at the firm level, sales and employment volatility are impacted by changes in the degree of ownership concentration. We then construct a model with private and listed firms where risk-taking is a choice variable at the firm-level. Due to general equilibrium feedback, we find that both an increase in stock market ...
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作者：Hamilton, James D.; Pruitt, Seth; Borger, Scott
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. We estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations by linking news' effects on forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy. Evidence between 1994 and 2007 indicates that the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run magnitude. These response coefficie...
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作者：Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco; Poschke, Markus
作者单位：McGill University
摘要：A declining agricultural employment share is a key feature of economic development. Its main drivers are: improvements in agricultural technology combined with Engel's law release resources from agriculture (labor push), and improvements in industrial technology attract labor out of agriculture (labor pull). We present a model with both channels and evaluate the importance using data on 12 industrialized countries since the nineteenth century. Results suggest that the pull channel dominated un...
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作者：Ravenna, Federico; Walsh, Carl E.
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We derive a linear-quadratic model that is consistent with sticky prices and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the second-order approximation to the welfare of the representative agent depends on inflation and gaps that involve current and lagged unemployment. Our approximation makes explicit how welfare costs are generated by the presence of search frictions. These costs are distinct from the costs associated with relative price dispersion and fluctuations in con...
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作者：Hall, George J.; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：Brandeis University; New York University
摘要：This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. (JEL E23, E31, E43, G12, H63)
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作者：Longstaff, Francis A.; Pan, Jun; Pedersen, Lasse H.; Singleton, Kenneth J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; Stanford University
摘要：We study the nature of sovereign credit risk using an extensive set of sovereign CDS data. We find that the majority of sovereign credit risk can be linked to global factors. A single principal component accounts for 64 percent of the variation in sovereign credit spreads. Furthermore, sovereign credit spreads are more related to the US stock and high-yield markets than they are to local economic measures. We decompose credit spreads into their risk premium and default risk components. On aver...
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作者：McDaniel, Cara
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University System of Ohio; Kenyon College
摘要：The goal of this paper is to examine the role of taxes and productivity growth as forces influencing market hours. To achieve this goal, the paper considers a calibrated growth model extended to include home production and subsistence consumption, both of which are found to be key features influencing market hours. The model is simulated for 15 OECD countries. The primary force driving changes in market hours is found to be changing labor income tax rates. Productivity catch-up relative to the...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Hobijn, Bart; Tambalotti, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We construct a PCE-based price index whose weights minimize the welfare costs of nominal distortions: a cost-of-nominal-distortions index. We compute these weights in a multi-sector New Keynesian model, calibrated to match US data on price stickiness, labor shares, and inflation across sectors. The CONDI weights mostly depend on price stickiness. Moreover, CONDI stabilization leads to negligible welfare losses compared to the optimal policy and is better approximated by core rather than headli...
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作者：Billi, Roberto M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate (OIR) in a small New Keynesian model, where the only policy instrument is a short-term nominal interest rate that may occasionally run against a zero lower bound (ZLB). The model allows for worst-case scenarios of misspecification. The analysis shows first, if the government optimally commits, the OIR is below 1 percent annually. Second, if the government re-optimizes each period, the OIR rises markedly to 17 percent. Third, if the governm...
