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作者：Besley, Timothy; Ilzetzki, Ethan; Persson, Torsten
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Stockholm University
摘要：Investments in fiscal capacity-economic institutions for tax compliance-are an important feature of economic development. This paper develops a dynamic model to study the evolution of fiscal capacity over time. We contrast a social planner's investment path with politically feasible paths. Three types of states emerge in the long run: a common-interest state where public resources are devoted to public goods, a redistributive state where additional fiscal capacity is used for transfers, and a ...
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作者：Feve, Patrick; Matheron, Julien; Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth compl...
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作者：Giuliano, Paola; Mishra, Prachi; Spilimbergo, Antonio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Empirical evidence on the relationship between democracy and economic reforms is limited to few reforms, countries, and years. This paper studies the effect of democracy on the adoption of economic reforms using a new dataset on reforms in the financial, capital and banking sectors, product markets, agriculture, and trade for 150 countries over the period 1960-2004. Democracy has a positive and significant impact on the adoption of economic reforms, but there is scarce evidence that economic r...
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作者：Benhima, Kenza; Massenot, Baptiste
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：Fear of risk provides a rationale for protracted economic downturns. We develop a real business cycle model where investors with decreasing relative risk aversion choose between a risky and a safe technology that exhibit decreasing returns. Because of a feedback effect from the interest rate to risk aversion, two equilibria can emerge: a standard equilibrium and a safe one in which investors invest in safer assets. We refer to the dynamics of this second equilibrium as a safety trap because it...
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作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Caballero, Ricardo J.; Engel, Eduardo M. R. A.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad de Chile
摘要：The sensitivity of US aggregate investment to shocks is procyclical. The response upon impact increases by approximately 50 percent from the trough to the peak of the business cycle. This feature of the data follows naturally from a DSGE model with lumpy microeconomic capital adjustment. Beyond explaining this specific time variation, our model and evidence provide a counterexample to the claim that microeconomic investment lumpiness is inconsequential for macroeconomic analysis.
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作者：Broer, Tobias
作者单位：Stockholm University
摘要：This paper shows how two standard models of consumption-risk-sharing-self-insurance through borrowing and saving and limited commitment to insurance contracts-replicate similarly well the standard, second-moment measures of insurance observed in US micro data. A nonparametric analysis, however, reveals strongly contrasting and counterfactual joint distributions of consumption, income and wealth. Method of moments estimation shows how measurement error in consumption eliminates excessive skewne...
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作者：Baumeister, Christiane; Peersman, Gert
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Ghent University
摘要：Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while a similar oil price increase is associated with smaller output effects. Oil supply shocks also account for a smaller fraction of real oil price variability in more recent periods,...
