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作者：Liu, Xuepeng; Ornelas, Emanuel
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Kennesaw State University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We study the relationship between participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) and the sustainability of democracy. Our model shows that FTAs can critically reduce the incentive of authoritarian groups to seek power by destroying protectionist rents, thus making democracies last longer. This gives governments in unstable democracies an extra motive to form FTAs. Hence, greater democratic instability induces governments to boost their FTA commitments. In a data-set with 116 countries over 1960...
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作者：Charnavoki, Valery; Dolado, Juan J.
作者单位：New Economic School; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; European University Institute
摘要：We propose a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy, using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel datasets of the global and domestic economies, sign restrictions are used to identify relevant demand and supply shocks that explain volatility in real commodity prices. We quantify their dynamic effects on a wide variety of Canadian macro variables. We are able to reproduce all the main stylized features at business-cycle frequencies documente...
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作者：Eichenbaum, Martin; Jaimovich, Nir; Rebelo, Sergio; Smith, Josephine
作者单位：Northwestern University; Duke University; New York University
摘要：Recent empirical work suggests that small price changes are relatively common. This evidence has been used to criticize classic menu-cost models. In this paper, we use scanner data from a national supermarket chain and micro data from the Consumer Price Index to reassess the importance of small price changes. We argue that the vast majority of these changes are due to measurement error. We conclude that the evidence on the prevalence of small price changes is much too weak to be used as a litm...
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作者：Gagnon, Etienne; Mandel, Benjamin R.; Vigfusson, Robert J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on US inflation. However, exchange rate pass-through may be underestimated because some price changes are missed when constructing price indexes. We investigate downward biases that arise when items exit or enter the US import price index. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata, we find that, although potentially large in theory, the empirical biases are modest over typical forecast horizons. As ...
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作者：Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir; Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of British Columbia
摘要：Countries become more politically polarized and fractionalized following financial crises, reducing the likelihood of major financial reforms precisely when they might have especially large benefits. The evidence from a large sample of countries provides strong support for the hypotheses that following a financial crisis, voters become more ideologically extreme and ruling coalitions become weaker, independently of whether they were initially in power. The evidence that increased polarization ...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Lippi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Sassari
摘要：We present a monetary model with segmented asset markets that implies a persistent fall in interest rates after a once-and-for-all increase in liquidity. The gradual propagation mechanism produced by our model is novel in the literature. We provide an analytical characterization of this mechanism, showing that the magnitude of the liquidity effect on impact, and its persistence, depend on the ratio of two parameters: the long-run interest rate elasticity of money demand and the intertemporal s...
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作者：Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：During World War I, the birth rate in France fell by 50 percent. Why? I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91 percent of the decline of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss of expected income a...
