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作者：Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Bank of Canada
摘要：We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unem-ployed, especially when they are divided along eligibility for and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We study the implica-tions of this heterogeneity on UI's insurance-incentive trade-off using a heterogeneous-agent job search model capable of match-ing the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recip-ients from nonrecipients. Insurance benefits are larger for UI recipients who are predominantly wealth poor. Meanw...
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作者：Daruich, Diego; Kozlowski, Julian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina. We find uniform pricing both within and across regions-i.e., prices almost do not vary within the stores of a chain. In line with uniform pricing, prices in stores of chains operating in one region react to changes in regional employment while prices in multiregion chains do not. Using a quantitative regional model with multiregion firms and uniform pricing, we find a one-half smaller elasticity of prices to a regional than an aggregate...
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作者：Argente, David; Hsieh, Chang-tai; Lee, Munseob
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We use a dataset with prices and spending on consumer packaged goods matched at the bar code level across the United States and Mexico to measure the price index in Mexico relative to the United States. Mexican prices relative to the United States are 23 percent lower compared to the International Comparisons Project's (ICP) price index. We decompose the 23 percent gap into the biases from imputation, sampling, quality, and variety. Quality bias increases Mexican prices by 48 percent. Imputati...
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作者：Paluszynski, Radoslaw; Yu, Pei Cheng
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We study optimal tax policies with human capital investment and retirement savings for present-biased agents. Agents are heterogeneous in their innate ability and make risky education investments, which determines their labor productivity. We demonstrate that the optimal distortions vary with education status. In particular, the optimal policy encourages human capital investment with savings incentives. Our implementation uses income-contingent student loans and existing retirement policies, a...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Van Rooij, Maarten
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV
摘要：We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exog-enously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optim...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Weber, Henning
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions in a model featuring a prod-uct life cycle and multiple sources of heterogeneity across goods. We show that both frictions deliver the same optimal target and how it can be estimated from observed trends in relative prices. Using micro price data underlying the CPI in the United Kingdom, we document that relative prices fall over the product lifetime in most expenditure items. This causes the...
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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Romer, Paul; Islam, Asif M.; Samaniego, Roberto
作者单位：George Washington University; The World Bank
摘要：We (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that workers in developed countries accumulate twice as much human capital at work as those in developing countries; (iii) use a simple accounting framework to find that the contribution of work experience and education to human capital accumulation and economic development might be equ...
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作者：Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, Barbara; Sekhposyan, Tatevik
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：Does the Federal Reserve have an information advantage in fore-casting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to information on the future state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announce-ments via an information channel? This paper investigates the evolution of both the information advantage and the information channel over time. Although they appear to be...
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作者：Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Stock, James H.
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon tax-ation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a neg-ative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduc-tion on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since Europea...
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作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Shin, Minchul
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Pennsylvania; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that addit...
