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作者：Johnson, Robert C.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multisector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade-comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comove...
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作者：Monnet, Eric
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of a policy that relied on quantities rather than interest rates. Standard SVAR analyses support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective during this period. However, this approach fails to identify the stance of monetary policy since it does not account for the specificity of quantitative controls on money and credit. An alternative identification strategy based on a narrative approach suggests that monetary po...
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作者：Ardagna, Silvia; Caselli, Francesco
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We review the events that led to the May 2010 and July 2011 bailout agreements. We interpret the bailouts as outcomes of political-economy equilibria. We argue that these equilibria were likely not on the Pareto frontier, and sketch political-economy arguments for why collective policymaking in the Euro area may lead to suboptimal outcomes.
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作者：Misra, Kanishka; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Almost half of American families did not adjust their consumption following receipt of the 2001 or 2008 tax rebates. Another 20 percent, with low income and more likely to rent, spent a small but significant amount. Households with large spending propensity held high levels of mortgage debt. The heterogeneity is concentrated in a few nondurable categories and a handful of new vehicle purchases. The cumulated predictions of the heterogeneous response model tend to be smaller and more accurate t...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2
摘要：We show that welfare can be lower under complete financial markets than under autarky in a monetary union with home bias, sticky prices, and asymmetric shocks. Such a monetary union is a second-best environment in which the structure of financial markets affects risk-sharing but also shapes the dynamics of inflation rates and the welfare costs from nominal rigidities. Welfare reversals arise for a variety of empirically plausible degrees of price stickiness when the Marshall-Lerner condition i...
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作者：Kraay, Aart
摘要：I use a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. Loans from official creditors typically finance multiyear public spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loa...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Blattman, Christopher
作者单位：Boston University; Columbia University
摘要：Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counterinsurgency capac...
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作者：Comin, Diego; Loayza, Norman; Pasha, Farooq; Serven, Luis
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; The World Bank
摘要：We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed (N) to developing economies (S) with a two-country, asymmetric, DSGE model with endogenous development of new technologies in N, and sunk costs of exporting and transferring the production of the intermediate goods to S. Consistent with the data, the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in N and S; shocks to N have a large effect on S; business cycles in N lead over medium term fluctuations in S;...
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作者：Jappelli, Tullio; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We use responses to survey questions in the 2010 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth that ask consumers how much of an unexpected transitory income change they would consume. The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 48 percent on average. We also find substantial heterogeneity in the distribution, as households with low cash-on-hand exhibit a much higher MPC than affluent households, which is in agreement with models with precautionary savings, where income risk plays an important...
