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作者：Castro, Rui; Coen-Pirani, Daniele
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：We study the evolution of educational attainment of the 1932-1972 cohorts using a human capital investment model with heterogeneous learning ability. Inter-cohort variation in schooling is driven by changes in skill prices, tuition, and education quality over time, and average learning ability across cohorts. Under static expectations the model accounts for the main empirical patterns. Rising skill prices for college explain the rapid increase in college graduation until the 1948 cohort. The d...
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作者：Debortoli, Davide; Lakdawala, Aeimit
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Michigan State University
摘要：The paper proposes a new measure of the degree of credibility of the Federal Reserve. We estimate a medium-scale macroeconomic model, where the central bank has access to a commitment technology, but where a regime-switching process governs occasional re-optimizations of announced plans. The framework nests the commonly used discretion and commitment cases, while allowing for a continuum of intermediate cases. Our estimates reject both full-commitment and discretion. We instead identify occasi...
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作者：Ranciere, Romain; Tornell, Aaron
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Financial liberalization increases growth, but leads to more crises and costly bailouts. We present a two-sector model in which liberalization, by allowing debt-denomination mismatch, relaxes borrowing limits in the financially constrained sector, but endogenously generates crisis risk. When regulation restricts external financing to standard debt, liberalization preserves financial discipline and may increase allocative efficiency, growth, and consumption possibilities. By contrast, under unf...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Virginia
摘要：While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, output, consumption, and investment declined by similar magnitudes around the globe. Given the partial integration of both goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? To address this question, we develop a -two-country model allowing for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized acros...
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作者：Krause, Michael U.; Moyen, Stephane
作者单位：University of Cologne; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：What are the effects of a higher central bank inflation target on the burden of real public debt? Several recent proposals have suggested that even a moderate increase in the inflation target can have a pronounced effect on real public debt. We consider this question in a New Keynesian model with a maturity structure of public debt and an imperfectly observed inflation target. We find that moderate changes in the inflation target only have significant effects on real public debt if they are es...
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作者：Slavtchev, Viktor; Wiederhold, Simon
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimatio...
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作者：Tenreyro, Silvana; Thwaites, Gregory
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England
摘要：We investigate how the response of the US economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the business cycle. The effects of monetary policy are less powerful in recessions, especially for durables expenditure and business investment. The asymmetry relates to how fast the economy is growing, rather than to the level of resource utilization. There is some evidence that fiscal policy has counteracted monetary policy in recessions but reinforced it in booms. We also find evidence that c...
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作者：Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon; Liu, Miao
作者单位：Columbia University; Columbia University; University of Chicago
摘要：China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In cont...
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作者：Hattori, Masazumi; Schrimpf, Andreas; Sushko, Vladyslav
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：We examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on stock market tail risk and risks of extreme interest rate movements. We find that UMP announcements substantially reduced option-implied equity market tail risks and interest rate risks. Most of the impact derives from forward guidance rather than asset purchase announcements. Communication about the future path of policy rates reduced volatility expectations of long-term rates and the associated risk premia. The reaction of equi...
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作者：Romer, Christina D.; Romer, David H.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper uses Social Security benefit increases from 1952 to 1991 to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfers. It finds a large, immediate, and significant positive response of consumption to permanent benefit increases. The response declines after about five months, and does not appear to spread to industrial production or employment. The effects of transfers are faster, but much less persistent and much smaller overall, than those of tax changes. Finally, monetary poli...
