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作者：Schoellman, Todd
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：A growing literature stresses the importance of early childhood human capital. I ask whether variation in early childhood investments can help explain cross-country income differences. I provide new empirical evidence: the adult outcomes of refugees are independent of age at arrival to the United States up to age six, despite dramatic improvements in income and environment upon arrival. A standard model is consistent with this finding if parents but not country are important for early childhoo...
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作者：Karabarbounis, Marios
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：This paper characterizes optimal labor income taxes that depend on age, household assets, and filing status (one or two earners) within a life-cycle model with heterogeneous, two-member households. The key innovation is a labor supply elasticity that varies endogenously among households. I find that tax distortions should be hump shaped in age, decrease in household assets, and be lower for joint relative to single filers. Age and assets act as complements within the optimal tax policy. Overal...
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作者：Magnani, Jacopo; Gorry, Aspen; Oprea, Ryan
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：Flow earnings in a laboratory experiment decline the further a Brownian state variable, z, evolves from its optimal level, z*. Optimal state dependent models predict subjects will pay a fixed cost to return z to z* only when z strays outside a critical inaction region around the optimum. On average, subjects adjust at states remarkably close to optimal threshold levels but, as in the field, do not establish true state dependent inaction regions, suggesting significant time dependent components...
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作者：Pouzo, Demian; Presno, Ignacio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Universidad de Montevideo
摘要：This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probability model of the underlying state of the borrowing economy is misspecified. Consequently, investors demand higher returns on their bond holdings to compensate for the default risk in the context of uncertainty. In contrast with the existing literature on sover...
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作者：Hnatkovska, Viktoria; Lahiri, Amartya; Vegh, Carlos A.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We present a new data fact: in response to a monetary tightening, the domestic currency tends to appreciate in developed countries but depreciate in developing countries. A model is developed to rationalize this contrasting pattern. It has three key channels of monetary transmission: a liquidity demand channel, a fiscal channel, and an output channel. The paper shows that a calibrated version of the model can explain the contrast between developed and developing countries. Using counterfactual...
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作者：Knittel, Christopher R.; Pindyck, Robert S.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The price of crude oil never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid-2004. By July 2008 it peaked at $145 and by late 2008 it fell to $30 before increasing to $110 in 2011. Are speculators partly to blame for these price changes? Using a simple model of supply and demand in the cash and storage markets, we determine whether speculation is consistent with data on production, inventory changes, and convenience yields. We focus on crude oil, but our approach can be applied to other commodities. We show...
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作者：Cloyne, James; Huertgen, Patrick
作者单位：Bank of England; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy based on a new, extensive real-time dataset for the United Kingdom. Employing the Romer-Romer identification approach we construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations and find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by 0.6 percent and inflation by up to 1 percentage point after 2 to 3 years. Our use of forecast data is shown to be crucial and that their omission generates the well-known price puzzle. Our ...
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作者：Wulfsberg, Fredrik
作者单位：Oslo Metropolitan University (OsloMet)
摘要：This is the first paper documenting the frequency and size of price adjustments using micro data from both the high-inflation period in the 1970s and 1980s, and the period of low inflation since the early 1990s. When inflation is high and volatile, prices change more frequently and in smaller magnitudes. When inflation is low and stable, prices change less frequently but in larger magnitudes. The frequency of price changes is more important for the variation in inflation when inflation is high...
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作者：Gaballo, Gaetano
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：This paper studies the social value of information about the future. In a stylized OLG model, agents need to forecast the future price level, they observe the current price and perceive with idiosyncratic noise the expectation announced by a more informed authority. When forward guidance communication is loose, the market becomes a main source of information about the future. Reliance on market information amplifies the impact of shocks on prices, which increases ex ante uncertainty and worsen...
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作者：Schroth, Josef
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：This paper studies a dynamic production economy with financial intermediation. It is assumed that claims held on intermediaries cannot be fully enforced such that intermediation is subject to intermediary equity requirements. It is shown that competitive equilibria are not constrained efficient whenever the aggregate amount of intermediary equity in the economy is low enough to limit production. Specifically, a constrained social planner can achieve a Pareto improvement by creating long-term r...
