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作者：Nakata, Taisuke
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：When the policy rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB), an increase in uncertainty regarding the future path of exogenous shocks alters the conditional expectations of relevant prices facing households and firms. Accordingly, an increase in uncertainty alters consumption, inflation, and output to a greater extent when the policy rate is constrained than otherwise. Using an empirically rich sticky-price model calibrated to match key features of the US economy, I find that uncertainty can exacerb...
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作者：Moro, Alessio; Moslehi, Solmaz; Tanaka, Satoshi
作者单位：University of Cagliari; Monash University; University of Queensland
摘要：Using new home production data for the United States, we estimate a model of structural transformation with a home production sector, allowing for both non-homotheticity of preferences and differential productivity growth in each sector. We report two main findings. First, the estimation results show that home services have a lower income elasticity than market services. Second, the slowdown in home labor productivity, which started in the late 70s, is a key determinant of the rise of market s...
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作者：Cao, Dan; Nie, Guangyu
作者单位：Georgetown University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：The seminal contribution by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) has spurred a vast literature on the importance of collateral constraints in propagating and amplifying shocks to the economy. However, most papers in the literature using collateral constraints assume non-state-contingent debt, i.e., markets are incomplete. To assess the relative importance of collateral constraints versus market incompleteness, we study a calibrated incomplete markets model and solve it with and without collateral constra...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National University of La Plata; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a...
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作者：Bento, Pedro; Restuccia, Diego
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We consider a model of heterogeneous production units with endogenous entry and productivity investment to assess the quantitative impact of policy distortions: when the productivity elasticity of distortions increases from 0.09 in the United States to 0.5 in India, aggregate output and average establishment size fall by 53 and 86 percent (37 and 0 percent in the standard factor misallocation model). Entry productivity and factor misallocation contribute equally to the reduction in output, whe...
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作者：Aoki, Shuhei; Nirei, Makoto
作者单位：Shinshu University; University of Tokyo
摘要：We construct a tractable neoclassical growth model that generates Pareto's law of income distribution and Zipf's law of the firm size distribution from idiosyncratic, firm-level productivity shocks. Executives and entrepreneurs invest in risk-free assets, as well as their own firms' risky stocks, through which their wealth and income depend on firm-level shocks. By using the model, we evaluate how changes in tax rates can account for the evolution of top incomes in the United States. The model...
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作者：Buera, Francisco J.; Shin, Yongseok
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Why doesn't capital flow into fast-growing countries? Using a model with heterogeneous producers and underdeveloped domestic financial markets, we explain the joint dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) and capital flows. When a large-scale economic reform removes preexisting idiosyncratic distortions in a small open economy, its TFP rises, driven by efficient reallocation of economic resources. At the same time, because of the domestic financial frictions, saving rates surge but investm...
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作者：Fernandez, Raquel; Wong, Joyce Cheng
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); International Monetary Fund
摘要：During the 1970s, the United States switched from mutual consent to a unilateral divorce regime. Who benefited/lost from this change? We develop a dynamic life cycle model in which agents make consumption, saving, work, and marital-status decisions under a given divorce regime. Calibrating the model to match key moments for the 1940 cohort and conditioning solely on gender, our ex ante welfare analysis finds that women fare better under mutual consent whereas men prefer a unilateral system. Co...
