How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Atalay, Enghin
• 署名单位: University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160353
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 254-280
• 关键词: aggregate fluctuations; intermediate inputs; business-cycle; GROWTH; TRANSFORMATION; PRODUCTIVITY; TECHNOLOGY; network; origins; output

摘要

I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. I develop and estimate a multi-industry general equilibrium model in which each industry employs the material and capital goods produced by other sectors. Using data on US industries' input prices and input choices, I find that the goods produced by different industries are complements to one another as inputs in downstream industries' production functions. These complementarities indicate that industry-specific shocks are substantially more important than previously thought, accounting for at least half of aggregate volatility.