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作者：Rognlie, Matthew; Shleifer, Andrei; Simsek, Alp
作者单位：Northwestern University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We present a model of investment hangover motivated by the Great Recession. Overbuilding of durable capital such as housing requires a reallocation of productive resources to other sectors, which is facilitated by a reduction in the interest rate. When monetary policy is constrained, overbuilding induces a demand-driven recession with limited reallocation and low output. Investment in other capital initially declines due to low demand, but it later booms and induces an asymmetric recovery in w...
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作者：Brinkman, Jeffrey; Coen-Pirani, Daniele; Sieg, Holger
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Many US municipalities have committed to pay retirement benefits to public sector employees but have not saved enough to fulfill these obligations. This paper studies the determinants of municipal pension funding and its implications for intergenerational redistribution using an overlapping generations model. Under perfect capital markets, pension funding choices are fully capitalized into land prices. This neutrality result fails if agents face a binding downpayment constraint in the land mar...
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作者：Herrendorf, Berthold; Schoellman, Todd
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We document for 13 countries ranging from rich (Canada, United States) to poor (India, Indonesia) that average wages are considerably lower in agriculture than in the other sectors. Moreover, agriculture has less educated workers and lower Mincer returns. We view these findings through. the lens of a multi-sector model in which workers differ in observed and unobserved characteristics and sectors differ in their human-capital intensities. We derive expressions for the implied harriers to the r...
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作者：Coles, Melvyn G.; Kelishomi, Ali Moghaddasi
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Warwick
摘要：Because the data show that market tightness is not orthogonal to unemployment, this paper identifies the many empirical difficulties caused by adopting the free entry of vacancies assumption in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) framework. Relaxing the free entry assumption and using Simulated Method of Moments (SMM) finds the vacancy creation process is less than infinitely elastic. Because a recession-leading job separation shock then causes vacancies to fall as unemployment increases, t...
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作者：Jin, Keyu; Li, Nan
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper documents new facts about the behavior of capital- and labor-intensive goods over the business cycle and also identifies a mechanism that generates international investment co-movement through shifting compositional changes of production and trade across sectors. Our model's quantitative predictions not only match aggregate and sectoral statistics but also generate empirically plausible sectoral composition effects. Finally, we show that essential segments of the transmission proces...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Mueller, Hannes
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：This paper studies the consequences of predation when firms deploy guard labor as a means of protecting themselves. We build a simple model and combine it with. data for 144 countries from the World Bank enterprise surveys, which ask about firm-level experiences with predation and spending on protection. We use the model to estimate the output loss caused by the misallocation of labor across firms and from production to protection. The loss due to protection effort is substantial and patterns ...
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作者：Miyamoto, Wataru; Thuy Lan Nguyen; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Santa Clara University; Bocconi University
摘要：Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period, but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation incr...
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作者：Chang, Yongsung; Hong, Jay H.; Karabarbounis, Marios
作者单位：University of Rochester; Yonsei University; Seoul National University (SNU); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：The standard life-cycle models of household portfolio choice have difficulty generating a realistic age profile of risky share. These models not only imply a high risky share on average but also a steeply decreasing age profile, whereas the risky share is mildly increasing in the data. We introduce age-dependent, labor market uncertainty into an otherwise standard model. A great uncertainty in the labor market high unemployment risk, frequent job turnovers, and an unknown career path-prevents ...
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作者：Alvarez, Jorge; Benguria, Felipe; Engbom, Niklas; Moser, Christian
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Kentucky; Princeton University; Columbia University
摘要：We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit-high-dimensional worker and firm fixed-effects models to understand the sources of this decrease. Firm effects account for 40 percent of the total decrease and worker effects for 29 percent. Changes in observable worker and firm characteristics contributed little to these trends. Instead, the decrease is primarily due to a compression of returns to the...
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作者：Ferrante, Francesco
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I develop a macroeconomic model in which banks can affect loan quality by exerting costly screening effort. Informational frictions limit the amount of external funds that banks can raise. In this framework, I consider two types of financial intermediation: traditional banking and shadow banking. By pooling different loans, shadow banks achieve a higher endogenous leverage compared to traditional banks, increasing credit availability. However, shadow banks also make the financial sector more f...
