Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Miyamoto, Wataru; Thuy Lan Nguyen; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
• 署名单位: Bank of Canada; Santa Clara University; Bocconi University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170131
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 247-277
• 关键词: fiscal-policy; US; inflation; purchases

摘要

Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period, but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation increases more in the ZLB period than in the normal period.