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作者：Orhun, Yesim; Cohn, Alain; Raymond, Collin B.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Cornell University
摘要：We provide field evidence that individuals engage in motivated optimism in the face of impending risk. Congruent with a dynamic anticipatory utility model, we demonstrate that belief distortions are time and stake dependent. Our study leverages variation in the time span between the survey and the externally imposed date when workers are required to return to their workplaces during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that, as the work return date approaches, individuals become relatively more opti...
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作者：Gerster, Andreas; Lamp, Stefan
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; RWI - Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：This paper investigates the impact of a large electricity tax exemption on production levels, employment and input choices in the German manufacturing industry. For two policy designs, we show that exempted plants increase their electricity use. This effect is larger under a notched exemption policy, where passing an eligibility threshold yields infra-marginal benefits, compared to a policy without such benefits. We detect no significant impact of the exemptions on production levels, export sh...
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作者：Grossmann, Volker; Schuenemann, Johannes; Strulik, Holger
作者单位：University of Fribourg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Gottingen
摘要：We study the optimal design of a fair public pension system in a multi-period overlapping generations model with occupation-specific morbidity and mortality that depends on the retirement age. The fairness constraint acts as institutional device ensuring that lifetime returns to contributions are equal across occupational groups. We consider group-specific replacement rates and a calculatory interest rate for early contributions as policy instruments. Calibrating the model to Germany, we find ...
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作者：Carayol, Nicolas; Jackson, Matthew O.
作者单位：Universite de Bordeaux; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Stanford University; The Santa Fe Institute
摘要：Consumers, businesses and organisations rely on others' ratings of items when making choices. However, individual reviewers vary in their accuracy and some are biased-either systematically over- or under-rating items relative to others' tastes, or even deliberately distorting a rating. We describe how to process ratings by a group of reviewers over a set of items and evaluate the individual reviewers' accuracies and biases, in a way that yields unbiased and consistent estimates of the items' t...
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作者：Catonini, Emiliano
作者单位：New York University; NYU Shanghai
摘要：I show that, in an extensive-form game, the outcomes that are consistent with iterated admissibility (i.e., with the iterated elimination of weakly dominated strategies) need not be consistent with extensive-form rationalizability.
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作者：Carias, Michelle Escobar; Johnston, David W.; Knott, Rachel; Sweeney, Rohan
作者单位：University of Melbourne; Monash University
摘要：Does temperature affect decision-making abilities and rationality? Using Indonesian data, we estimate how risky choices, impatience and rational choice violations vary with exposure to temperature. We show that hot weather temporarily increases rational choice violations and impatience, but does not affect risk-related decisions. These effects are primarily driven by nighttime rather than daytime temperatures. We provide suggestive evidence that the mechanism behind these effects is decreased ...
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作者：Panunzi, Fausto; Pavoni, Nicola; Tabellini, Guido
作者单位：Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study how voters' preferences between a safe incumbent and a risky opponent change in the aftermath of a negative aggregate shock. With reference-dependent preferences, economically disappointed voters become risk lovers, and are hence attracted by the more risky candidate. Survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are consistent with our assumptions and theoretical predictions on voters' behaviour.
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作者：Santavirta, Torsten; Stuhler, Jan
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Helsinki; Uppsala University; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Recent studies use names-first and surnames-to estimate intergenerational mobility in sources that lack direct family links. While generating novel evidence on intergenerational transmission processes, it remains unclear how different estimators compare and how reliable they are. This paper evaluates the most popular name-based methods, using newly digitised records from Finland and US census data. We illustrate that their interpretation depends on sampling properties of the data, such as the ...
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作者：Abraham, Filip; Bormans, Yannick; Konings, Jozef; Roeger, Werner
作者单位：KU Leuven; Vlerick Business School; Nazarbayev University; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：This paper provides a new method to estimate price-cost margins in the presence of fixed costs of production. By exploiting properties of the primal and dual sales-based and cost-based Solow residuals, we are able to simultaneously estimate price-cost margins and the share of fixed costs in total costs for each input. Ignoring fixed costs in production underestimates price-cost margins and overestimates excess profit shares. Using a thirty-year panel of Belgian firms, we estimate price-cost ma...
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作者：Battiston, Giacomo; Daniele, Gianmarco; Le Moglie, Marco; Pinotti, Paolo
作者单位：University of Milan; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; Bocconi University
摘要：We show that the Mexican war on drugs pushed drug cartels into large-scale oil theft. We propose a simple model in which government crackdowns on one criminal sector induce criminal organisations to invest in a new sector. When entering the new sector, challenger organisations with a residual share of the market in the traditional sector may leapfrog incumbent organisations. We bring the model to the data using detailed information on drug cartel presence, oil pipelines and illegal oil taps ac...
