Motivated Optimism and Workplace Risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Orhun, Yesim; Cohn, Alain; Raymond, Collin B.
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Cornell University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueae033
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 2951-2981
• 关键词: unrealistic optimism; coronavirus disease; UNITED-STATES; Covid-19; overconfidence; consumption; illness; utility; FUTURE

摘要

We provide field evidence that individuals engage in motivated optimism in the face of impending risk. Congruent with a dynamic anticipatory utility model, we demonstrate that belief distortions are time and stake dependent. Our study leverages variation in the time span between the survey and the externally imposed date when workers are required to return to their workplaces during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that, as the work return date approaches, individuals become relatively more optimistic about the increased infection risk associated with going back to the workplace, and about how severely their health may be impacted if they get infected. Belief distortions are larger among those facing potential health complications conditional on infection. Our results are informative about when and for whom interventions will be most effective.