The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Balke, Nathan S.; Jin, Xin; Yucel, Mine
• 署名单位: Southern Methodist University; University of Aberdeen; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Southern Methodist University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueae013
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 2252-2289
• 关键词: opec; BEHAVIOR; energy; models; cartel; IMPACT; POWER

摘要

We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8% to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find that OPEC core acts to keep its market share constant in the face of the dramatic increase in shale production.