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作者：Phillips, Peter C. B.; Shi, Shuping; Yu, Jun
作者单位：Yale University; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University; Macquarie University
摘要：Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-b...
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作者：Lin, Haizhen
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：This article develops a dynamic model of entry and exit to analyze quality choice and oligopoly market structure in the nursing home industry. I find significant heterogeneity in the competitive effects across market structures: Firms of similar quality levels compete more strongly than dissimilar firms. Sunken entry costs are extremely large, and quality adjustment behavior is governed by significant fixed adjustment costs. A proposal to eliminate low-quality nursing homes is found to cause a...
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作者：De Haan, Thomas; Offerman, Theo; Sloof, Randolph
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Amsterdam
摘要：We experimentally study the strategic transmission of information in a setting where both cheap talk and money can be used. Theoretically, many equilibria exist side by side, in which senders use either costless messages, money, or both. We find that senders prefer to communicate through costless messages. Only when the interest disalignment between sender and receiver increases does cheap talk tend to break down and high sender types start burning money to enhance the credibility of their cos...
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作者：Candelon, Bertrand; Dupuy, Arnaud
作者单位：IPAG Business School; Maastricht University
摘要：This article proposes an equilibrium theory of the organization of work in an economy with an implicit market for productive time. In this market, agents buy or sell productive time. This implicit market gives rise to the formation of teams, organized in hierarchies with one leader (buyer) at the top and helpers (sellers) below. Relative to autarky, hierarchical organization leads to higher within and between team payoffs/productivity inequality. This prediction is tested empirically in the co...
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作者：Bowen, T. Renee
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：Tariff bindings and administered protection are two characteristics of the World Trade Organization (WTO) that are little understood. Tariff bindings place a ceiling on tariffs that is not always reached, whereas administered protection provides all industries with some minimum import protection, effectively creating a floor for protection. How do these policies affect applied most favored nation (MFN) tariff rates that are enacted through the legislature? I model tariffs determined by a dynam...
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作者：Mumtaz, Haroon; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Does the transmission of economic policies and structural shocks vary with the state of the economy? We answer this question using a strategy based on quantile regressions, which account for endogenous regressors and state-dependent parameters. An application to U.S. real activity and interest rate reveals pervasive asymmetries in the propagation mechanism across good and bad times. During periods when real activity is above its conditional average, the estimates of the degree of forward-looki...
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作者：Phillips, Peter C. B.; Shi, Shuping; Yu, Jun
作者单位：Yale University; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University; Macquarie University
摘要：This article provides the limit theory of real-time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201-26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099-1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal mar...
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作者：Fernholz, Ricardo T.
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College
摘要：I consider dynamic models in which investors are heterogeneously informed about both foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate fundamentals and show that transparency sometimes exacerbates misalignment between the exchange rate and fundamentals. Although transparency reveals information about fundamentals, it also increases the precision of the exchange rate as a signal of those fundamentals that remain unknown (the signal-precision effect of transparency). If a central bank announcemen...
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作者：Brinkman, Jeffrey; Coen-Pirani, Daniele; Sieg, Holger
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We develop a new dynamic general equilibrium model to explain firm entry, exit, and relocation decisions in an urban economy with multiple locations and agglomeration externalities. We characterize the stationary distribution of firms that arises in equilibrium. We estimate the parameters of the model using a method of moments estimator. Using unique panel data collected by Dun and Bradstreet, we find that agglomeration externalities increase the productivity of firms by up to 8%. Economic pol...
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作者：Ching, Andrew T.; Hayashi, Fumiko; Wang, Hui
作者单位：University of Toronto; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Peking University
摘要：This article develops a new estimation method that accounts for excess demand and the unobserved component of product quality. We apply our method to study the Wisconsin nursing home market in 1999 and find that nearly 20% of elderly qualified for Medicaid were rationed out. However, our counterfactual experiment shows that the net welfare gain of fulfilling all nursing home demands may be small, because the welfare gain could be largely offset by the increase in Medicaid expenditures. We also...
