THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN GOOD AND BAD TIMES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mumtaz, Haroon; Surico, Paolo
• 署名单位: University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12136
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1237-1260
• 关键词: shocks

摘要

Does the transmission of economic policies and structural shocks vary with the state of the economy? We answer this question using a strategy based on quantile regressions, which account for endogenous regressors and state-dependent parameters. An application to U.S. real activity and interest rate reveals pervasive asymmetries in the propagation mechanism across good and bad times. During periods when real activity is above its conditional average, the estimates of the degree of forward-lookingness and interest rate semi-elasticity are significantly larger (in absolute value) than the estimates associated with below-average periods. Results are robust to alternative strategies to model state-dependent parameters.