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作者：Heller, Yuval; Winter, Eyal
作者单位：University of Oxford; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：We study the strategic advantages of following rules of thumb that bundle different games together (called rule rationality) when this may be observed by one's opponent. We present a model in which the strategic environment determines which kind of rule rationality is adopted by the players. We apply the model to characterize the induced rules and outcomes in various interesting environments. Finally, we show the close relations between act rationality and Stackelberg stability (no player can ...
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作者：Sieg, Holger
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作者：Kormilitsina, Anna; Nekipelov, Denis
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; University of Virginia
摘要：The Laplace-type estimator has become popular in applied macroeconomics, in particular for estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is often obtained as the mean and variance of a parameter's quasi-posterior distribution, which is defined using a classical estimation objective. We demonstrate that the objective must be properly scaled; otherwise, arbitrarily small confidence intervals can be obtained if calculated directly from the quasi-posterior distribution. We...
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作者：Kawaura, Akihiko; La Croix, Sumner
作者单位：Doshisha University; University of Hawaii System
摘要：Teams in Japan's two professional baseball leagues began to add foreign players in the early 1950s, with the average number per team reaching 5.79 in 2004. This was primarily because foreign hitters outperformed Japanese hitters. Hazard analysis shows that a poorly performing team was more likely to hire its first Caucasian and African American players earlier than a successful team. Econometric analysis of team use of foreign players over 45 seasons (1960-2004) shows that losing Central Leagu...
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作者：Fujiwara-Greve, Takako; Greve, Henrich R.; Jonsson, Stefan
作者单位：Keio University; INSEAD Business School; Uppsala University
摘要：This article is inspired by real-world phenomena that firms lose customers based on imprecise information and take a long time to recover. If consumers are playing an ordinary repeated game with fixed partners, there is no clear reason why recovery happens slowly. However, if consumers are playing an endogenously repeated game, a class of simple efficient equilibria exhibits the asymmetry of fast loss and slow recovery of customers after a bad signal. Exit is systematic, but formation of a new...
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作者：Clausen, Andrew; Strub, Carlo
作者单位：University of Edinburgh; University of St Gallen
摘要：Operating overheads are widespread and lead to concentrated bursts of activity. To transfer resources between active and idle spells, agents demand financial assets. Futures contracts and lotteries are unsuitable, as they have substantial overheads of their own. We show that moneyunder efficient monetary policyis a liquid asset that leads to efficient allocations. Under all other policies, agents follow inefficient money cycle patterns of saving, activity, and inactivity. Agents spend their mo...
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作者：Kydland, Finn E.; Rupert, Peter; Sustek, Roman
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：Housing construction, measured by housing starts, leads GDP in a number of countries. Measured as residential investment, the lead is observed only in the United States and Canada; elsewhere, residential investment is coincident. Variants of existing theory, however, predict housing construction lagging GDP. In all countries in the sample, nominal interest rates are low ahead of GDP peaks. Introducing long-term nominal mortgages, and an estimated process for nominal interest rates, into a stan...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Cornell University; Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward-looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational and conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that they do not know. Therefore, agents take into account that their beliefs will evolve according to what they will observe. This framework accommodates both gradual and abrupt changes in beliefs and allow...
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作者：Burdett, Kenneth; Dong, Mei; Sun, Ling; Wright, Randall
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Melbourne; Brock University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article integrates search-based models of marriage and money. We think about households as organizations, the way Coase thinks about firms, as alternatives to markets that become more attractive when transactions costs increase. In the model, individuals consume market- and home-produced goods, and home production is facilitated by marriage. Market frictions, including taxes, search, and bargaining problems, increase the marriage propensity. The inflation tax encourages marriage because b...
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作者：Miessi Sanches, Fabio A.; Junior Silva, Daniel; Srisuma, Sorawoot
作者单位：Universidade de Sao Paulo; University of Warwick; University of Surrey
摘要：Estimation of dynamic games is known to be a numerically challenging task. A common form of the payoff functions employed in practice takes the linear-in-parameter specification. We show a least squares estimator taking a familiar OLS/GLS expression is available in such a case. Our proposed estimator has a closed form. It can be computed without any numerical optimization and always minimizes the least squares objective function. We specify the optimally weighted GLS estimator that is efficien...
