HOUSING DYNAMICS OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kydland, Finn E.; Rupert, Peter; Sustek, Roman
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; Queen Mary University London
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12193
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1149-1177
• 关键词: monetary-policy; household production; time; fluctuations; mortgages; ECONOMY; prices

摘要

Housing construction, measured by housing starts, leads GDP in a number of countries. Measured as residential investment, the lead is observed only in the United States and Canada; elsewhere, residential investment is coincident. Variants of existing theory, however, predict housing construction lagging GDP. In all countries in the sample, nominal interest rates are low ahead of GDP peaks. Introducing long-term nominal mortgages, and an estimated process for nominal interest rates, into a standard model aligns the theory with observations on starts, as mortgages transmit nominal rates into real housing costs. Longer time to build makes residential investment cyclically coincident.