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作者：Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Cardiff University
摘要：This article identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as vector autoregression innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses indicate that a positive shock to the target is associated with a large increase in inflation and long-term interest rates in the United States. Target shocks are estimated to be a vita...
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作者：de la Croix, David; Mariani, Fabio; Mercier, Marion
作者单位：Universite Catholique Louvain; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa
摘要：We show that in Italy the legalization of divorce unleashed the forces of secularization, making educated persons more likely to contract a civil instead of a religious marriage. This process, ignited by institutional change, is also shaped by culture: higher social capital or weaker family ties make the choice of civil marriage more responsive to education. These results emerge from both aggregate and individual data, and can be rationalized through a model of religiosity, education and marri...
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作者：Fan, Xinyu; Wu, Lingwei
作者单位：Fudan University
摘要：This article presents a theory that explains the rise of foot-binding in historical China, in response to a gender-asymmetric social mobility shock that dispersed men's quality distribution in the marriage market. The theory characterizes the marriage market equilibrium and women's competition strategies before and after the shock. Empirical evidence using archival data corroborates the theoretical predictions that greater men's social mobility opportunities encouraged foot-binding and that a ...
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作者：Sun, Yang; Zhao, Wei; Zhou, Junjie
作者单位：Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; Renmin University of China; Tsinghua University
摘要：Two types of interventions are commonly implemented in networks: characteristics interventions, which influence individuals' intrinsic incentives, and structural interventions, which target the social links among individuals. In this article, we provide a general framework to evaluate the distinct equilibrium effects of both types of interventions. We show that any structural intervention is outcome-equivalent to an endogenously determined characteristics intervention. We present a wide range ...
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作者：Liu, Yanbo; Phillips, Peter C. B.; Yu, Jun
作者单位：Shandong University; Yale University; University of Auckland; Singapore Management University; Singapore Management University; University of Macau; Yale University
摘要：This study provides new mechanisms for identifying and estimating explosive bubbles in mixed-root panel autoregressions with a latent group structure. A postclustering approach is employed that combines k-means clustering with right-tailed panel-data testing. Uniform consistency of the k-means algorithm is established. Pivotal null limit distributions of the tests are introduced. A new method is proposed to consistently estimate the number of groups. Monte Carlo simulations show that the propo...
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作者：Liu, Feng; White, Joseph S.; Conlon, John R.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas El Paso; University of Mississippi
摘要：We construct a simple rational greater-fool bubble model, where the motive for trade is intertemporal consumption smoothing. This yields an easy-to-understand bubble model with three states of the world, instead of the five required previously. Bubbles are more likely when asset sellers have profitable investment opportunities, but little wealth, so they sell shares in those opportunities to wealthier investors. Bad sellers then pretend to sell similar investment opportunities, creating potent...
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作者：Calsamiglia, Caterina; Miralles, Antonio
作者单位：ICREA; University of Messina; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：School Choice provides students with the opportunity to attend better schools than those in their neighborhood. This is crucial for students from disadvantaged areas where schools may be of lower quality. Our theoretical model and numerical simulations show that the widely used Deferred Acceptance (DA) algorithm has limitations in providing access to better schools (ABS). When schools have varying levels of quality and when there are priorities linked to neighborhood schools, the DA algorithm ...
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作者：Carroll, Daniel; Hur, Sewon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the United States and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1% reduction in consumption. Muc...
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作者：Jaworski, Taylor; Kitchens, Carl; Nigai, Sergey
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Bureau of Economic Research; State University System of Florida; Florida State University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This article quantifies the value of U.S. highways. We develop a multisector general equilibrium model with many locations in the United States (i.e., counties) and many countries. In the model, producers choose shipping routes subject to domestic and international trade costs, endogenous congestion, and port efficiency at international transshipment points. Applying the model, we find that removing the Interstate Highway System reduces real GDP by $421-$578 billion. The results highlight the ...
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作者：Pram, Kym
作者单位：Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno
摘要：I analyze a model of monopoly insurance contracting where the consumer has access to endogenous, costly evidence of his risk type. I characterize when the consumer is worse off if the insurer is allowed to condition contracts on evidence and when the ability to contract on evidence leads to a Pareto improvement. I compare the results to an analogous setting with perfect competition: Under perfect competition, when evidence acquisition costs are low, the ability to contract on evidence is alway...
