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作者：Colicev, Anatoli; Hoste, Joris; Konings, Jozef
作者单位：University of Liverpool; University of Cambridge; Nazarbayev University; KU Leuven
摘要：Using retailer scanner data, we investigate how a sharp and abrupt depreciation of the exchange rate affects consumers' cost of living. We find that the marginal cost of imported goods increased, whereas their retail markups decreased compared to domestic products. There was also a surge in the entry and exit of both foreign and local product varieties post-depreciation. Wealthier consumers, who spend more on imports, are hit harder by higher marginal costs but benefit from reduced markups and...
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作者：Keniston, Daniel; Larsen, Bradley J.; Li, Shengwu; Prescott, J. J.; Silveira, Bernardo S.; Yu, Chuan
作者单位：Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Washington University (WUSTL); Harvard University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Stanford University; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：This article documents a robust pattern from diverse sequential bargaining settings: agents favor offers that split the difference between the previous two offers. Our empirical settings include used cars, insurance claims, home sale, trade tariffs, a TV game show, eBay, and auto-rickshaws. These even-split offers are more likely to be accepted, less likely to spur exit by the opponent, and more likely to be followed by subsequent split-the-difference offers if bargaining continues. We propose...
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作者：Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Foster, Lucia; Ohlmacher, Scott; Saporta-Eksten, Itay
作者单位：Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Tel Aviv University
摘要：A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers' subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed survey measure of uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000 manufacturing plants. We find three key results. First, investment is negatively associated with higher uncertainty. Second, uncertainty is also negatively related to employment growth and overall shipments growth, which hi...
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作者：Lee, Hyunju
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：This article builds a two-country model of gross capital flows where agents share tradable output risk using two bonds, subject to stochastic collateral constraints. Equilibrium portfolios are short in domestic bonds and long in foreign bonds because the endogenous movements of the real exchange rate provide a hedge against domestic output shocks. Under negative domestic shocks, these external positions transfer wealth from home to abroad. During the Great Recession, the model shows that such ...
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作者：Silgado-Gomez, Edgar
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Banco de Espana
摘要：This article investigates the impact and transmission of uncertainty regarding the future path of government finances on economic activity. Employing a data-rich approach, I introduce a novel proxy that captures uncertainty surrounding public finances, which I refer to as sovereign uncertainty. In an application to Spain, sovereign uncertainty shocks persistently dampen the economy in the medium run, whereas macro-financial uncertainty shocks originating in the private sector induce a negative...
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作者：Chakravarty, Surajeet; Kelsey, David; Teitelbaum, Joshua C.
作者单位：University of Exeter; University of Nottingham; Georgetown University; Georgetown University
摘要：We explore the implications of unawareness for tort law. We study cases where injurers and victims initially are unaware that some acts can yield harmful consequences, or that some acts or harmful consequences are even possible, but later become aware. We model unawareness by Reverse Bayesianism. We compare the two basic liability rules of Anglo-American tort law, negligence and strict liability, and argue that negligence has an important advantage over strict liability in a world with unaware...
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作者：Azacis, Helmuts; Vida, Peter
作者单位：Cardiff University; Corvinus University Budapest; CY Cergy Paris Universite
摘要：A competition authority (CA) has an objective, which specifies what output profile firms need to produce as a function of production costs. These costs change over time and are only known by the firms. The objective is repeatedly implementable if the firms cannot collude and deceive the CA in equilibrium. We identify necessary and sufficient conditions for repeated implementation when firms can only announce prices and quantities. We use these conditions to study when the competitive output is...
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作者：Alpanda, Sami; Song, Melissa Hyunji; Zubairy, Sarah
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Central Florida; University of Sydney; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Sydney
摘要：We examine how the effects of government spending shocks depend on the balance sheet position of households. Employing U.S. household survey data, we find a large, positive consumption response for households with mortgage debt, smaller response for renters, and an insignificant response for outright homeowners, in response to a positive government spending shock. We consider a model with three types of households and show that it can successfully account for these findings. Liquidity constrai...
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作者：Levine, David K.; Martinelli, Cesar
作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London; George Mason University; Washington University (WUSTL); George Mason University
摘要：We argue that traditional voting models fail to fully explain the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. Instead, we model elections as a competition between incentive schemes to mobilize voters. We elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections, as the potential to be pivotal motivates voters instead of exclusively costly incentives as in nonclose elections. We show that, under those conditions, better voter targeting results in tighter races and incr...
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作者：Liu, Xuewen; Wang, Pengfei; Xu, Sichuang
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Peking University; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
摘要：We present a tractable model that accommodates asset-market sentiment in a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) setting, allowing us to quantitatively evaluate sentiment-driven macroeconomic fluctuations. In our model, changes in households' perceived uncertainty about housing prices lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations in housing prices, which then impact investment and output through entrepreneurs' collateral constraints. Household sentiment shocks hence are transmitted and...
