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作者：Chen, Natalie
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
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作者：Porto, Guido G.
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：This paper develops a method to estimate the general equilibrium distributional effects of trade policies using household survey data. Trade reforms cause the domestic prices of traded goods to change and this, in turn, triggers a series of general equilibrium effects. Among these, I estimate the impacts of trade on the prices of traded goods, non-traded goods, and wages. By combining the estimates of the consumption impacts and the labor income impacts, I am able to assess how trade policies ...
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作者：Raimondos-Moller, P; Woodland, AD
作者单位：University of Sydney
摘要：This paper examines the welfare implications of non-discriminatory tariff reforms by a subset of countries, which we term a non-preferential trading club. We show that there exist coordinated tariff reforms, accompanied by appropriate income transfers between the member countries, that unambiguously increase the welfare of these countries while leaving the welfare of non-members unaltered. In terms of economic policy implications, our results show that there exist regional, MFN-consistent arra...
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作者：Durdu, Ceyhun Bora; Mendoza, Enrique G.
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：An implication of the globalization hazard hypothesis is that 'Sudden Stops' caused by global financial frictions could be prevented by offering foreign investors price guarantees on emerging markets assets. These guarantees create a tradeoff, however, because they weaken globalization hazard while creating international moral hazard. We study this tradeoff using a quantitative, equilibrium asset-pricing model. Without guarantees, margin calls and trading costs cause Sudden Stops driven by a F...
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作者：Anderson, James E.; Bandiera, Oriana
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We propose a simple model of trade outside the law preyed on by robbers and possibly protected by private cops. We establish the conditions for trade collapse, secure trade and insecure trade. Endogenous predation and enforcement can explain both puzzling failures of commonly observed state policies against illegal trade and puzzlingly large trade responses to liberalization in licit goods. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Chang, R; Velasco, A
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Harvard University
摘要：We develop a model of a small economy whose residents choose whether to borrow in domestic or foreign currency. The central bank, in turn, chooses fixed or flexible exchange rates, taking the currency denomination of debts as given. We characterize the simultaneous determination of portfolios and exchange rate regime. Both floating and fixed rates can occur as equilibrium outcomes. Fear of floatine may emerge endogenously and in association With a currency mismatch in assets and liabilities. I...
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作者：Morris, Stephen; Shin, Hyun Song
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Princeton University
摘要：In a model of debt crisis caused partly by creditor coordination failure, we show that bailouts that reduce ex post inefficiency will sometimes enhance the incentives for governments to take costly adjustment effort. This model helps us understand a debate about the role of the IMF in catalyzing lending to developing countries. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.
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作者：Calvo, Guillermo A.; Izquierdo, Alejandro; Loo-Kung, Rudy
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Inter-American Development Bank; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Sudden Stops are associated with increased volatility in relative prices. We introduce a model based on information acquisition to rationalize this increased volatility. An empirical analysis of the conditional variance of the wholesale price to consumer price ratio using panel ARCH techniques confirms the relevance of Sudden Stops and potential balance sheet effects as key determinants of relative price volatility, where balance sheet effects are captured by the interaction of a proxy for pot...
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作者：Mackowiak, Bartosz
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：In recent policy debates some have argued that expansionary monetary policy in Japan can increase real output in Japan and in Japan's neighbors, while others have warned that it is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. In this paper we estimate structural vector autoregressions to assess the effects of Japanese monetary policy shocks. We find that the effects of Japanese monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variation in East Asia have been modest and difficult to reconcile with the beggar-thy-neigh...
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作者：Aguiar, M; Gopinath, G
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions. In this paper we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. We highlight the role of the stochastic trend in emerging ...
