-
作者：Cuadra, Gabriel; Sapriza, Horacio
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University Newark; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：A large body of the empirical literature shows that high turnover rates/length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads, debt and default rates. We help to rationalize such claims by including these political features in a dynamic stochastic small open economy model of sovereign debt and default. In this way we offer a complementary approach to the econometric analyses in the literature. Consistent with the data, the quantitative analysis ...
-
作者：Shambaugh, Jay
作者单位：Dartmouth College
-
作者：Baldwin, Richard E.; Robert-Nicoud, Frederic
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper explores the impact of trade on growth when firms are heterogeneous. We find that greater openness produces anti- and pro-growth effects. The Hopenhayn-Melitz-model selection effects raises the expected cost of introducing a new variety and this tends to slow the rate of new-variety introduction and hence growth. The pro-growth effect stems from the impact that freer trade has on the marginal cost of innovating. The balance of the two effects is ambiguous with the sign depending upo...
-
作者：Rutherford, Thomas F.; Tarr, David G.
作者单位：The World Bank; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：We employ a computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. We incorporate all 55,098 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as agents in the model. The model includes FDI in services and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects in imperfectly competitive goods and services sectors, features which are crucial to the results. We show that incorporating the ...
-
作者：Choi, Horag; Mark, Nelson C.; Sul, Donggyu
作者单位：University of Auckland; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the evolution of the U.S. current account in a two-country dynamic stochastic endowment model in which a single non-state contingent bond is the only internationally traded asset. The paper focuses on the world 'saving glut' as the primary cause of continual deterioration in the current account and departs from the standard framework by introducing a three-parameter model of the subjective discount factor that depends on societal (per capita) variables that are external to household c...
-
作者：Klein, Michael W.; Shambaugh, Jay C.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of the mirage view that pegs do not really peg with the fear of floating view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance. Recent studies, however, show that the ex...
-
作者：Walter, Ingo
作者单位：New York University
-
作者：Martincus, Christian Volpe; Carballo, Jeronimo
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：How effective are export promotion activities in developing countries? What are the channels through which export promotion affects firms' exports, the intensive margin or the extensive margin? Empirical evidence in this respect is scarce. We aim at filling this gap in the literature by providing evidence on the impact of export promotion on export performance using a unique firm level dataset for Peru over the period 2001-2005. We find that export promotion actions are associated with increas...
-
作者：Berger, David W.; Chaboud, Alain P.; Chernenko, Sergey V.; Howorka, Edward; Wright, Jonathan H.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Yale University; Harvard University
摘要：We analyze the association between order flow and exchange rates using a new dataset representing a majority of global interdealer transactions in the two most-traded currency pairs at the one minute frequency over a six-year time period. This long span of high-frequency data allows us to gain new insights about the joint behavior of these series. We first confirm the presence of a substantial association between interdealer order flow and exchange rate returns at horizons ranging from 1 min t...
-
作者：Daude, Christian; Fratzscher, Marcel
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; European Central Bank
摘要：Is there a pecking order of cross-border investment in that countries become financially integrated through some types of investment rather than others? Using a novel database of bilateral capital stocks for all types of investment - FDI, portfolio equity securities, debt securities as well as loans - for a broad set of 77 countries, we show that such a pecking order indeed exists. The paper focuses on two key determinants of this pecking order: information frictions and the quality of host co...
