The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Klein, Michael W.; Shambaugh, Jay C.
• 署名单位: Dartmouth College; Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.10.003
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 70-92
• 关键词: exchange rate regimes; Fixed exchange rate

摘要

The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of the mirage view that pegs do not really peg with the fear of floating view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance. Recent studies, however, show that the exchange rate regime matters. This can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes. We demonstrate that the mirage view is somewhat misleading and incomplete. Pegs frequently break, but many do last. Also, there is a high degree of flipping, that is, the re-fort-nation of pegs that have broken. Thus, a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future. We also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates. While the fear of floating view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility, we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates, both today and in the future. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.