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• The Bhagwati Award AI翻译
  作者：Eaton, Jonathan; Engel, Charles
  作者单位：New York University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
• Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade AI翻译
  作者：Manova, Kalina
  作者单位：Stanford University
  摘要：This paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows. I exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 19801997 period. I show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets. This result is not driven by cro...
• Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? Pass-through accounting for the case of beer AI翻译
  作者：Hellerstein, Rebecca
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
  摘要：Nominal exchange rates are remarkably volatile. They ordinarily appear disconnected from the fundamentals of the economies whose currencies they price. These facts make up a classic puzzle about the international economy. If prices do not respond fully to changes in the nominal exchange rate, who bears the cost of such large and unpredictable changes: foreign firms, domestic firms, or domestic consumers? This study presents a new analysis of the sources of incomplete pass-through and then uses...
• Tariff retaliation versus financial compensation in the enforcement of international trade agreements AI翻译
  作者：Limao, Nuno; Saggi, Kamal
  作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Southern Methodist University
  摘要：We analyze whether financial compensation is preferable to the WTO's current dispute settlement system that permits injured member countries to impose retaliatory tariffs. We show that, ex-post, monetary fines are more efficient than tariffs in terms of granting compensation to injured parties but fines suffer from an enforcement problem since they must be paid by the violating country. If fines must ultimately be supported by the threat of tariffs, they fail to yield a more cooperative outcom...
• Understanding the evolution of world business cycles AI翻译
  作者：Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Whiteman, Charles H.
  作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Virginia; University of Iowa
  摘要：This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during the period 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) of the G-7 countries. We then quantify the relative importance of the common and country components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods: the Bretton Woods (BW) period (1960: 1 1972:2), th...
• Feasible multilateralism and the effects of regionalism AI翻译
  作者：Ornelas, Emanuel
  作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
  摘要：Recent research shows that the GATT/WTO negotiating rules are capable of delivering a politically efficient equilibrium. Such an equilibrium is, however, economically inefficient. Global free trade, in particular, is unattainable even in a fully cooperative world, if governments have political motivations. In such a context, we show that regional trade agreements can help move the world towards a welfare-superior equilibrium. The reason is that, when members of regional trade agreements lower ...
• Emergent economies, divergent paths: Economic organization and international trade in South Korea and Taiwan AI翻译
  作者：Dekle, Robert
  作者单位：University of Southern California
• Delay and dynamics in labor market adjustment:: Simulation results AI翻译
  作者：Artuc, Erhan; Chaudhuri, Shubham; McLaren, John
  作者单位：Koc University; The World Bank; University of Virginia
  摘要：We simulate numerically a trade model with labor mobility costs added, modeled in such a way as to generate gross flows in excess of net flows. Adjustment to a trade shock can be slow with plausible parameter values. In our base case, the economy moves 95% of the distance to the new steady state in approximately eight years. Gross flows have a large effect on this rate of adjustment and on the normative effects of trade. Announcing and delaying the liberalization can build - or destroy - a con...
• Net exports, consumption volatility and international business cycle models AI翻译
  作者：Raffo, Andrea
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
  摘要：Conventional two-country RBC models interpret countercyclical net exports as reflecting primarily the dynamics of capital. I show that, quantitatively, theoretical economies rely on counterfactual terms of trade effects: trade fluctuations, on the contrary, are driven by consumption smoothing, thus generating procyclical net trade in goods. I then consider a class of preferences that embeds home production in a reduced form: consumption volatility increases so that countercyclical net exports ...
• New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates AI翻译
  作者：Scholl, Almuth; Uhlig, Harald
  作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Chicago
  摘要：Past empirical research on monetary policy in open economies has found evidence of the 'delayed overshooting puzzle' and the 'forward discount puzzle'. We revisit the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates by applying Uhlig's [Uhlig, H., 2005a. What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure. journal of Monetary Economics 52(2), 381-419.] identification procedure that involves sign restrictions on the impulse responses of selected vari...