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作者：Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan; Terrones, Marco E.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Amsterdam
摘要：This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database covering 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2010:4. Our analysis shows that there are strong linkages between the different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruptions, notably house and equity price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, while recoveries following asset price busts tend to be weaker,...
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作者：Giri, Rahul
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要：This paper connects trade flows to deviations from the law of one price (LOOP) in a structural model of trade and retailing. It accounts for the observed cross-country dispersion in prices of goods, based on retail price survey data, by focusing on two sources of goods market segmentation - (i) international trade costs, and (ii) non-traded input costs of distribution. I find that a multi-sector Ricardian trade model, ala Eaton-Kortum, augmented with a distribution sector, can account for the ...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence which coexist are local and transitory. The cyclical outlook for the next few ye...
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作者：Chor, Davin; Manova, Kalina
作者单位：Stanford University; Singapore Management University
摘要：We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of...
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作者：Ait-Sahalia, Yacine; Andritzky, Jochen; Jobst, Andreas; Nowak, Sylwia; Tamirisa, Natalia
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Princeton University
摘要：This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic and financial sector policy announcements in the United States, the United Kingdom, the euro area, and Japan on interbank credit and liquidity risk premia during the recent crisis. Overall, policy interventions were associated with a reduction in interbank risk premia, most significantly for recapitalization programs. By contrast, decisions to bail out individual banks in an ad hoc manner or let them fail were accompanied by a significant rise in...
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作者：Bridgman, Benjamin
摘要：Manufacturing and vertical specialization (VS) trade, trade in goods that incorporate imported inputs, have grown rapidly since the 1960s. I argue that declining trade costs are an important explanation for these facts. I present a three stage vertical specialization trade model, with raw materials, manufactured parts and final goods sectors. In the simulated model, falling trade costs explain much of the observed growth in overall and VS trade. Manufacturing trade grows twice as fast as overa...
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作者：Vannoorenberghe, G.
作者单位：Tilburg University
摘要：This paper shows that the share of exports in the total sales of a firm has a positive and substantial impact on the volatility of its sales. Decomposing the volatility of sales of exporters between their domestic and export markets, I show using an identification strategy based on a firm-specific geographical instrument that firms with a larger export share have more volatile domestic sales and less volatile exports. These empirical patterns can be explained using a model in which firms face ...
