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作者：Defever, Fabrice; Heid, Benedikt; Larch, Mario
作者单位：University of Nottingham; University of Bayreuth; University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：In this paper, we provide causal evidence that firms serve new markets which are geographically close to their prior export destinations with a higher probability than standard gravity models predict. We quantify the impact of this spatial pattern using a data set of Chinese firms which had never exported to the EU, the United States, and Canada before 2005. These countries imposed import quotas on textile and apparel products until 2005 and experienced a subsequent increase in imports of prev...
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作者：Felbermayr, Gabriel; Jung, Benjamin; Larch, Mario
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University Hohenheim; University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：The quantitative trade literature often does not distinguish between tariffs and iceberg trade costs. This paper explores qualitatively and quantitatively how this distinction matters for the gains from trade. Most obviously, tariffs generate government revenues, while icebergs do not. In models of monopolistic competition, they may also affect entry. Finally, depending on whether they are modeled as cost or demand shifters, tariffs may have different implications on profits, entry, and, in tu...
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作者：Eberhardt, Markus; Presbitero, Andrea F.
作者单位：University of Nottingham; University of Oxford; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis builds on theoretical arguments and data considerations in modelling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the debt-growth nexus adopting linear and non-linear specifications, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel We find some support for a negative relationship between public debt a...
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作者：Bhattarai, Saroj; Lee, Jae Won; Park, Woong Yong
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Seoul National University (SNU); University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：We introduce financial imperfections - asymmetric net wealth positions, incomplete risk-sharing, and interest rate spreads across member countries - in a prototypical two-country currency union model and study implications for monetary policy transmission mechanism and optimal policy. In addition to, and independent from, the standard transmission mechanism associated with nominal rigidities, financial imperfections introduce a wealth redistribution role for monetary policy. Moreover, the two ...
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作者：Dalton, John T.; Leung, Tin Cheuk
作者单位：Wake Forest University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：Market distortions can lead to resource misallocation, which can further lead to inefficiency. Throughout the history of the trans-Atlantic slave trade, qualitative evidence of various sources of distortion abounds. No study, however, has quantified the inefficiency in the slave trade due to these distortions. We use a structural approach to identify the dispersion of distortions in the slave trade from wedges in first order conditions. We then calculate the TFP gains had the dispersion of dis...
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作者：Berg, Kimberly A.; Mark, Nelson C.
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Predictive regressions for bilateral exchange rates are typically run on variables from the associated bilateral pairs of countries. These regressions characteristically have low explanatory power, which leaves room for an omitted variables interpretation. We test whether these omitted variables are from third-countries. When third-country macro factors are added to bilateral exchange rate regressions, they enter significantly and increase the adjusted R-2. A three-country exchange rate model ...
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作者：Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Rogoff, Kenneth
作者单位：Harvard University; American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research; Harvard University
摘要：This paper explores the menu of options for renormalizing public debt levels relative to nominal activity in the long run, should governments eventually decide to do so. Although debt ratios may need to rise further in some cases, a vision of longer-term options is key to weighing alternative medium-term stabilization strategies. Orthodox ones, the standard fare of officialdom, include enhancing growth, running primary budget surpluses, and privatizing government assets. Heterodox polices incl...
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作者：Manganelli, Simone; Popov, Alexander
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper studies how financial development affects the volatility of GDP growth through the channel of sectoral reallocation. For 28 OECD countries over the period 1970-2007, we construct a benchmark industrial portfolio that minimizes the economy's long-term volatility for a given level of long-term labor productivity growth. We find that financial development substantially increases the speed with which the observed industrial composition of output converges toward the benchmark. To overco...
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作者：Cardi, Olivier; Restout, Romain
作者单位：Universite Paris-Pantheon-Assas; Universite de Lorraine; Universite Catholique Louvain
摘要：This paper investigates the relative price and relative wage effects of a higher productivity in the traded sector compared with the non traded sector in a two-sector open economy model with imperfect substitutability in hours worked across sectors. The Balassa-Samuelson (1964) model predicts that a rise in the sectoral productivity ratio by 1% raises the relative price of non tradables by 1% while leaving the non traded wage-traded wage ratio unchanged. Applying cointegration methods to a pan...
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作者：Carluccio, Juan; Bas, Maria
作者单位：University of Surrey
摘要：Do variations in labor market institutions affect the cross-border organization of the firm? Using firm-level data on multinationals located in France, we show that firms are more likely to outsource the production of intermediate inputs to external suppliers when importing from countries with high worker bargaining power. This effect is stronger for firms operating in capital-intensive and differentiated industries. We propose a theoretical mechanism that rationalizes these findings. The frag...
