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作者：Seitz, Michael; Tarasov, Alexander; Zakharenko, Roman
作者单位：University of Munich; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：This paper develops a quantitative model of trade, military conflicts, and defense spending. Lowering trade costs between two countries reduces probability of an armed conflict between them, causing both to cut defense spending. This in turn causes a domino effect on defense spending by other countries. As a result, both countries and the rest of the world are better off. We estimate the model using data on trade, conflicts, and military spending. We find that, after reduction of costs of trad...
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作者：Fally, Thibault
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：The gravity equation for trade flows is one of the most successful empirical models in economics and has long played a central role in the trade literature (Anderson, 2011). Different approaches to estimate the gravity equation, i.e. reduced-form or more structural, have been proposed. This paper examines the role of adding-up constraints as the key difference between structural gravity with multilateral resistance indexes and reduced-form gravity with simple fixed effects by exporter and impo...
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作者：Artuc, Erhan; Lederman, Daniel; Porto, Guido
作者单位：The World Bank; The World Bank; National University of La Plata
摘要：Estimates of labor mobility costs are needed to assess the responses of employment and wages to trade shocks when factor adjustment is costly. Available methods to estimate those costs rely on panel data, which are seldom available in developing countries. We propose a method to estimate mobility costs using readily obtainable data worldwide. Our estimator matches the changes in observed sectoral employment allocations with the predicted allocations from a model of costly labor adjustment. We ...
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作者：Kim, Yun Jung; Tesar, Linda L.; Zhang, Jing
作者单位：Sogang University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Using Korean firm-level data on publicly-listed and privately-held firms together with firm exit data, we find strong evidence that holdings of foreign-currency denominated debt negatively affected the economic performance of small firms during the 1997-98 crisis. The large exchange rate depreciation that occurred during the crisis resulted in a decline in net worth for firms with foreign-currency denominated debt on their balance sheets. Small firms with more short-term foreign debt were more...
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作者：Nam, Deokwoo; Wang, Jian
作者单位：Hanyang University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：This paper argues that it is important to distinguish surprise and anticipated components of total factor productivity (TFP) when we study the international transmission of TFP shocks. We document that surprise and anticipated shocks to US TFP induce distinct dynamics for international relative prices (the real exchange rate and the terms of trade) and international trade (real exports, real imports, and the trade balance). Our empirical findings can reconcile some conflicting empirical result...
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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Bonn; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest r...
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作者：Liu, Qing; Lu, Yi
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics; National University of Singapore
摘要：This paper contributes to the literature by identifying the causal effect of firm investment on exporting behavior. The identification hinges on regional variations in the 2004 value-added tax pilot reform in China, which generated positive investment shocks. The instrumental variable estimation results show that firm investment significantly and substantially increases the likelihood of exporting, and this effect is largely due to the positive effect of firm investment on firm productivity. F...
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作者：Hornok, Cecilia; Koren, Miklos
作者单位：Central European University; HUN-REN; HUN-REN Centre for Economic & Regional Studies; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We build a model of administrative barriers to trade to understand how they affect trade volumes, shipping decisions and welfare. Because administrative costs are incurred with every shipment, exporters have to decide how to break up total trade into individual shipments. Consumers value frequent shipments, because they enable them to consume close to their preferred dates. Hence per-shipment costs create a welfare loss. We derive a gravity equation in our model and show that administrative co...
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作者：Martin, Julien; Mayneris, Florian
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite Catholique Louvain
摘要：We develop a new methodology to identify high-end variety exporters in French firm-level data. We find that they do not export to more countries, but they export to more distant destinations than low-end ones. We also show that in contrast to low-end exporters, distance has almost no effect on high-end variety export(er)s. Because of this lower sensitivity to distance at the micro-level, specializing in the production of high-end varieties has implications for the geography of aggregate export...
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作者：Yu, Changhua
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics
摘要：Does opening up capital markets facilitate risk diversification across borders? Are all countries gradually better off in the process of international financial integration? This paper explores welfare implications for various countries in a center-periphery framework with endogenous portfolio choice. Financial integration is divided into four stages: financial autarky, two-country integration, center-periphery integration and global integration. Two effects from financial integration emerge: ...
