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作者：Michaud, Amanda; Rothert, Jacek
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; United States Naval Academy
摘要：Government expenditures are pro-cyclical in emerging markets and counter-cyclical in developed economies. We show this pattern is most pronounced in social transfers which are also a large component of total government expenditures (28-39%). The discrepancy in the cyclicality of spending on goods and services is smaller, by contrast, and the category accounts for just 11-16% of total government expenditures. In a small open economy model, we find disparate social transfer policies can account ...
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作者：Cosar, A. Kerem; Grieco, Paul L. E.; Li, Shengyu; Tintelnot, Felix
作者单位：University of Virginia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Durham University; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In the automobile industry, as in many tradable goods markets, firms usually earn their highest market share within their domestic market. The goal of this paper is to disentangle the supply- and demand-driven sources of this home market advantage. While trade costs, foreign production costs, and taste heterogeneity all matter for market outcomes, we find that a preference for home brands is the single most important driver of home market advantage even after controlling for brand histories an...
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作者：Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik; Henn, Christian
作者单位：World Trade Organization; Leibniz University Hannover; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We demonstrate that durable MFN tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers, and magnitudes of effects are sizable. The WTO Information Technology Agreement's (ITA) unique setting allows us to overcome the challenges associated with identifying effects of non-discriminatory trade policies due to two reasons: (i) ITA constitutes a quasi-natural experiment of several passive signatories joining the agreement as an unavoidable part of pursuing a larger policy objective, and (...
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作者：Allen, Franklin; Bartiloro, Laura; Gu, Xian; Kowalewski, Oskar
作者单位：Imperial College London; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Central University of Finance & Economics; IESEG School of Management; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite Paris Cite
摘要：In this paper, we examine the relationship between the structure of the real economy and a country's financial system. We consider whether the development of the real economic structure can predict the direction of evolution of a country's financial structure. Using data for 108 countries, we find a significant relationship between real economic structure and financial structure. Next, we exploit shocks to the economies in India, Finland and Sweden, and South Korea and show that changes in the...
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作者：Garred, Jason
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：Import tariffs have fallen steeply worldwide over the last several decades, but has trade policy persisted through a rise in the use of other instruments? I study this question in the context of China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, using panel data on Chinese export policies. I find that after its entry into WTO, the distribution of China's export restrictions across industries increasingly resembles the inverse of its pre-WTO import tariff schedule. The evidence suggests th...
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作者：Akinci, Ozge; Chahrour, Ryan
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Boston College
摘要：We estimate a model with an occasionally-binding collateral constraint, and find that half of productivity shocks are anticipated by households. In the estimated model, good news about productivity raises leverage, increasing the probability that a Sudden Stop occurs in future periods. In the run-up to the Sudden Stop, the economy exhibits a boom period with consumption and investment above trend, consistent with the data. During the Sudden Stop, the nonlinear effects of the constraint induce ...
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作者：Cho, Jaehan
作者单位：Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET)
摘要：This paper provides empirical evidence of the prevalence and importance of manager transfers to affiliates of multinational corporations (MNCs). Using a unique data set on foreign affiliates of Korean MNCs, I find that most foreign affiliates have managers transferred from their parent companies. These transferred managers at first comprise a significant portion of the managerial positions at foreign affiliates, but gradually become outnumbered by local managers as the affiliates grow. Despite...
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作者：Mengus, Eric
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
摘要：Why does a borrowing country not avoid the internal cost of default, an important driver of sovereign debt repayment, by implementing domestic sector bailouts? This paper investigates sovereign debt sustainability in a model where domestic and foreign investors optimally select their portfolios and the sovereign decides over its default and bailout policies. It shows that internal bailouts do not preclude sovereign borrowing when domestic private exposures to sovereign debt, direct or indirect...
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作者：Jarocinski, Marek; Mackowiak, Bartosz
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：When monetary and fiscal policy are conducted as in the euro area, output, inflation, and government bond default premia are indeterminate according to a standard sticky-price general equilibrium model extended to include defaultable public debt. With sunspots, the model mimics the recent euro area data. We specify an alternative configuration of monetary and fiscal policy, with a non-defaultable eurobond. If this policy arrangement had been in place since the onset of the Great Recession, out...
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作者：Raff, Horst; Ryan, Michael; Staehler, Frank
作者单位：University of Kiel; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Kiel; Western Michigan University; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Adelaide
摘要：Using Japanese microdata for the period 1980 to 2000 we find evidence for two transmission channels from financial shocks to foreign direct investment: a collateral channel, whereby changes in the value of investors' landholdings affect their borrowing ability; and a lending channel, whereby changes in bank health affect banks' lending ability. Decreasing land values by 55% on average from their peak in 1990 to the sample mean reduces the predicted number of investments by 17%. Reducing banks'...
