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作者：Jacks, David S.; Novy, Dennis
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that marke...
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作者：Crowley, Meredith; Meng, Ning; Song, Huasheng
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Nanjing University; Zhejiang University; Zhejiang University
摘要：We estimate how a rise in uncertainty about future tariff rates impacts firm decisions to enter into and exit from export markets. Using Chinese customs transactions between 2000 and 2009, we exploit time-variation in product-level trade policy and find that Chinese firms are less likely to enter new foreign markets and more likely to exit from established foreign markets when their products are subject to increased trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the phenomenon of tariff ec...
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作者：Cruz, Marcio; Bussolo, Maurizio; Iacovone, Leonardo
作者单位：The World Bank; Universidade Federal do Parana
摘要：A growing literature aiming at explaining differences in productivity and access to global export markets across firms has focused on the internal organization of firms. This paper contributes to this literature by evaluating the impact of a program that aims at enhancing competitiveness of small and medium enterprises in Brazil by providing coaching and consulting on management and production practices. Specifically, the paper tests whether the program induces treated firms to reorganize know...
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作者：Korinek, Anton
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show that capital flows to emerging market economies create externalities that differ by an order of magnitude depending on the state-contingent payoff profile of the flows. Those with pro-cyclical payoffs, such as foreign currency debt, generate substantial negative pecuniary externalities because they lead to large repayments and contractionary exchange rate depreciations during financial crises. Conversely, capital flows with an insurance component, such as FDI or equity, are largely ben...
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作者：Hettig, Thomas; Mueller, Gernot J.
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：According to the pre-crises consensus there are separate domains for monetary and fiscal stabilization in a currency union. While the common monetary policy takes care of union-wide fluctuations, fiscal policies should be tailored to meet country-specific conditions. This separation is no longer optimal, however, if monetary policy is constrained by an effective lower bound on interest rates. Specifically, we show that in this case there are benefits from coordinating fiscal policies across co...
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作者：Buono, Ines; Formai, Sara
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：This paper analyzes how bank credit affects foreign and domestic sales. We use Italian matched bank-firm data and exploit bank mergers and acquisitions as a novel instrument to establish a causal link. We find that shocks to the supply of bank credit induce exporters to decrease their export flows, without affecting their domestic sales. On the other hand, non-exporters react by reducing their domestic sales. We argue that these differences are not driven by the kind of flow, but by the kind o...
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作者：Hummels, David; Lee, Kwan Yong
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of North Dakota Grand Forks
摘要：We construct a synthetic panel of household expenditures from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) and use the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate expenditure shares and income elasticities of demand that vary by good-time-income. We show that the size and distribution of income shocks drives expenditure change in a manner that varies profoundly across traded goods. Our estimates of expenditure shares and income elasticities could be useful in many applications that seek to expla...
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作者：Cosar, A. Kerem; Demir, Banu
作者单位：University of Virginia; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University
摘要：We quantify the effect of container technology on transport costs and trade by estimating the modal choice between containerization and breakbulk shipping using micro-level trade data. The model is motivated by novel facts that relate container usage to shipment, destination and firm characteristics. We find container transport to have a higher first-mile cost and a lower distance elasticity, making it cost effective in longer distances. At the median distance across all country pairs, the con...
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作者：Drechsel, Thomas; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on commodity exports, are prone to highly disruptive economic cycles. This paper proposes a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to quantitatively study the triggers of these cycles. The economy consists of two sectors, one of which produces commodities with prices subject to exogenous international fluctuations. These fluctuations affect both the competitiveness of the economy and its borrowing terms, as higher commodity prices...
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作者：Luo, Jie; Wang, Cheng
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Fudan University
摘要：A model of dynamic contracting with private information is constructed to study sovereign lending and default. The model endogenizes debt exclusion and provides a theory of reentry and a theory of debt dynamics within the exclusion period. It explains why countries may end up more indebted after the exclusion period. It offers an interpretation for the mixed evidence on the correlation between default probability and indebtedness. It also explains the observed positive correlation between the ...
