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作者：Bodenstein, Martin; Kamber, Gunes; Thoenissen, Christoph
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Bank for International Settlements (BIS); University of Sheffield
摘要：We show that a model of an advanced small open economy with exports in commodities and search and matching frictions in the labour market can match the impulse responses from a panel vector autoregression to an identified commodity price shock. Using a minimum distance strategy, we find that international financial risk sharing is low even for advanced small open economies. Moreover, a strong real exchange rate appreciation is key for an unexpected commodity price increase to induce a tighteni...
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作者：Li, Shengyu
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of exporting to quantify how productivity and uncertain foreign demand separately influence firms' export participation. In this model, firms face uncertainty about their own foreign demand, and they update their beliefs based on individual export transactions according to Bayes' rule. I estimate the model using data on firm-level production and transaction-level exports to Germany in the Chinese ceramics and glass industry. The empirical resul...
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作者：Raimondos, Pascalis; Woodland, Alan
作者单位：Queensland University of Technology (QUT); University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We propose a reciprocity rule for use in multilateral trade policy negotiations that is guaranteed to raise welfare of all participating countries under minimal assumptions. Our reciprocity rule requires all countries to raise the quantities of their net imports by the same proportion. We show that, starting from a Nash tariff equilibrium, a tariff reform that delivers proportional increases in all countries' net imports will unambiguously raise welfare in each country. The structure imposed b...
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作者：Foellmi, Reto; Grossmann, Sandra Hanslin; Kohler, Andreas
作者单位：University of St Gallen; Swiss National Bank (SNB); Swiss Federal Research Station Agroscope
摘要：This paper presents a dynamic North-South general-equilibrium model where per capita incomes shape demand patterns across regions. Innovation takes place in a rich North while firms in a poor South imitate products manufactured in North. Allowing a role for per capita incomes in determining demand delivers a complete international product cycle as described by Vernon (1966), where the different stages of the product cycle are not only determined by supply-side factors but also by the distribut...
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作者：Hill, Brian; Michalski, Tomasz
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
摘要：We study portfolio allocation and characterize contracts issued by firms in the international financial market when investors exhibit ambiguity aversion and perceive ambiguity in assets issued in foreign locations. Increases in the variance of their risky production process cause firms to issue assets with a higher variable payment (equity). Hikes in investors' perceived ambiguity have the opposite effect, and lead to less risk-sharing. Entrepreneurs from capital-scarce countries finance thems...
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作者：Emlinger, Charlotte; Poncet, Sandra
作者单位：heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics
摘要：We investigate the supply-side repercussions on Chinese imports after the entry of multinational retailers in China. We exploit sector- and origin-country level import data for a panel of Chinese cities between 1997 and 2012, and differentiate between retailer and non retailer goods and across countries of origin of imports. We find that international global retail presence in Chinese cities produces a disproportionate rise in retail good imports from the retailers' country of origin. Our resu...
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作者：Fatum, Rasmus; Liu, Runjuan; Tong, Jiadong; Xu, Jiayun
作者单位：University of Alberta; Nankai University; Nankai University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Copenhagen
摘要：A premise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies is that currency depreciations lead to export growth. This premise, however, does not seem validated as there is no consensus in the empirical literature regarding the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows. We reexamine whether currency fluctuations are systematically associated with trade flows using a rich and unique Chinese customs dataset spanning the universe of bilateral Chinese transaction level trades over the 2000 to 2011 period. This...
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作者：Lee, Eunhee; Yi, Kei-Mu
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Houston System; University of Houston; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We assess the role of global value chains in transmitting global integration shocks to aggregate trade as well as distributional outcomes. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium trade model that features multistage production, with different stages having different productivities and using factors (occupations) with different intensities. The model also features a Roy mechanism, in which heterogeneous workers endogenously choose their sector and occupation. Country- and worker-level co...
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作者：Acharya, Sushant; Bengui, Julien
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Motivated by debates surrounding international capital flows during the Great Recession, we conduct a positive and normative analysis of capital flows when a region of the global economy experiences a liquidity trap. Capital flows reduce inefficient output fluctuations in this region by inducing exchange rate movements that reallocate expenditure towards the goods it produces. Restricting capital mobility hampers such an adjustment. From a global perspective, constrained efficiency entails sub...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Eyquem, Aurelien; Gomme, Paul
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Universite du Littoral-Cote-d'Opale; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite Lyon 2; Institut Universitaire de France; Concordia University - Canada; Universite de Montreal
摘要：We solve the Ramsey-optimal tax plan for a small open economy with an endogenously-determined real exchange rate. The open economy constrains the government's setting of the capital income tax rate since physical capital cannot be dominated in rate of return by foreign assets. However, the endogenous real exchange rate loosens this constraint relative to a one good open economy model in which the real exchange rate is necessarily fixed. We find that the dynamics of the two good small open econ...
