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作者：Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：A sovereign default model in which the sovereign derives private benefits from public office and contests elections to stay in power is developed. The economy's growth process is modeled as a Markov switching regime, which is shown to be a better description of the data for our set of emerging economies. In the model, consistent with evidence, the sovereign is less likely to be reelected if economic growth is weak. In the low-growth regime, there is higher probability of loss of private benefi...
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作者：Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Kovak, Brian K.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use both longitudinal administrative data and cross-sectional household survey data to study the margins of labor market adjustment following Brazil's early 1990s trade liberalization. We document how workers and regional labor markets adjust to trade-induced changes in local labor demand, examining various adjustment margins, including earnings and wage changes; interregional migration; shifts between tradable and nontradable employment; and shifts between formal employment, informal emplo...
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作者：Leibovici, Fernando; Waugh, Michael E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper quantitatively investigates the extent to which variation in the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution can help account for puzzling features of cyclical fluctuations of international trade volumes. Our insight is that, because international trade is time-intensive, variation in the rate at which agents are willing to substitute across time affects how trade volumes respond to changes in output and prices. We use a standard small open economy model with time-intensive internat...
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作者：Beladi, Hamid; Chakrabarti, Avik
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Milwaukee
摘要：We present a tractable general equilibrium model to capture the effects of divisionalization on trade in oligopolistic industries. Divisionalization reduces the incentives for diversification in production. The extensive margins of trade expand as a result of divisionalization, facilitating specialization toward the direction of comparative advantage, with exports rising in the case of domestic divisionalization and imports rising in the case of foreign divisionalization. This effect of intern...
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作者：Tabakis, Chrysostomos; Zanardi, Maurizio
作者单位：KDI School of Public Policy & Management; Lancaster University
摘要：Are preferential trade agreements (PTAs) stumbling blocks or building blocks towards multilateral trade liberalization? We address this question by investigating the effects of the negotiation and implementation of PTAs on the use of antidumping (AD) (i.e., the most common form of contingent trade protection) by member countries against non-members as there has been a concurrent surge in regionalism and AD activity since the 1990s. Theoretically-derived empirical predictions are supported by t...
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作者：Feenstra, Robert C.; Ma, Hong; Xu, Yuan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Tsinghua University
摘要：We study the employment responses to the expansion of US exports and to the import competition, especially from China. We find that although import competition reduces jobs, export expansion also creates a substantial number of jobs. At the industry level, job gains due to US export expansion largely offset job losses due to Chinese import competition, resulting in a net gain of 379 thousand jobs over 1991-2011 in our preferred estimate. At the commuting zone level, job gains and losses are ro...
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作者：Felbermayr, Gabriel; Teti, Feodora; Yalcin, Erdal
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; HTWG Hochschule Konstanz University of Applied Sciences; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Kiel
摘要：When a country grants preferential tariffs to another, either reciprocally in a free trade agreement (FTA) or unilaterally, rules of origin (Roos) are defined to determine whether a product is eligible for preferential treatment. RoOs exist to avoid that exports from third countries enter through the member with the lowest tariff (trade deflection). However, RoOs distort exporters' sourcing decisions and burden them with red tape. Using a global data set, we show that, for 86% of all bilateral...
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作者：Seoane, Hernan D.; Yurdagul, Emircan
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Sudden Stops are characterized by large output drops, current account reversals and real exchange rate depreciation followed by a slow recovery, a pattern that has proven to be hard to capture with standard open economy models. This paper extends the standard models with endogenous collateral constraints to include permanent income (trend) shocks and studies the optimal policy design in this setting. We find that shocks to the trend play an important role in generating a Sudden Stop followed b...
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作者：Gholampour, Vahid; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：Bucknell University; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use Twitter opinions about the Euro-Dollar exchange rate to estimate the private information model of Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2006) and investigate the disconnect between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals over both short and long horizons. We simulate the model with the estimated parameters and replicate the methodology of three studies that document the disconnect empirically. The model is consistent with the findings of the empirical literature, though for a different reason ove...
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作者：Miyamoto, Wataru; Thuy Lan Nguyen; Sheremirov, Viacheslav
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Santa Clara University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：Using panel data on military spending for 125 countries, we document new facts about the effects of changes in government purchases on the real exchange rate, consumption, and current accounts in both advanced and developing countries. While an increase in government purchases causes real exchange rates to appreciate and increases consumption significantly in developing countries, it causes real exchange rates to depreciate and decreases consumption in advanced countries. The current account d...
