Trend shocks and sudden stops

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Seoane, Hernan D.; Yurdagul, Emircan
• 署名单位: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103252
• 发表日期: 2019
• 关键词: borrowing constraints; Trend shocks; sudden stops; Optimal capital controls

摘要

Sudden Stops are characterized by large output drops, current account reversals and real exchange rate depreciation followed by a slow recovery, a pattern that has proven to be hard to capture with standard open economy models. This paper extends the standard models with endogenous collateral constraints to include permanent income (trend) shocks and studies the optimal policy design in this setting. We find that shocks to the trend play an important role in generating a Sudden Stop followed by a slow recovery, a result that is also supported by the data. With trend and transitory shocks, optimal capital control policy is procyclical, although less so than under transitory shocks only. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.