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作者：Gervais, Antoine; Jensen, J. Bradford
作者单位：University of Sherbrooke; Georgetown University; Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, we use a unique dataset on the distribution of output and demand across regions of the United States to construct measures of trade costs for 969 service and manufacturing industries. Our method is a natural extension of the gravity model of trade and identifies trade costs in the absence of trade data. As expected, our measures of trade costs are higher on average for service industries. However, there is considerable variation across industries within sectors. Using our measur...
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作者：Eppinger, Peter S.
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：Major technological advances have recently spurred a new wave of offshoring in services, which used to be non-tradable. Should service workers in developed countries worry about their jobs? Trade theory has given a nuanced answer to this question, suggesting that efficiency gains from offshoring may counteract direct job losses, which leaves the predicted net effect ambiguous. This paper investigates the employment effects of service offshoring in a newly combined and exceptionally detailed pa...
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作者：Senay, Ozge; Sutherland, Alan
作者单位：University of St Andrews; University of St Andrews; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Recent literature shows that, when international financial trade is restricted to autarky or a single bond, there are internal and external welfare trade-offs that imply optimal monetary policy, in principle, deviates from inflation targeting in order to offset real exchange rate misalignments. This paper develops a more realistic model of incomplete markets, where there is international trade in multiple assets. The analysis shows that the presence of multiple assets creates a potentially pow...
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作者：Bircan, Cagatay
作者单位：European Bank of Reconstructon & Development
摘要：We examine the ownership structure and productivity of multinational affiliates and their effects on domestic industry. We first separate plant-level efficiency into a physical productivity and a price component. Multinationals target plants with high prices and markups. Upon acquisition they raise physical productivity but lower prices, leaving markups unchanged, especially when they are majority owners. This pro-competitive effect means that multinationals' productivity effects may be previo...
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作者：Flemming, Jean; L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Piguillem, Facundo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Brandeis University
摘要：We analyze the optimal macroprudential policy under the presence of persistent permanent shocks, which convey information about future growth. In this context, crises are characterized by long periods with positive shocks that eventually revert, rendering the collateral constraint binding and triggering deleveraging. In this environment it is optimal to tax borrowing during good times, and let agents act freely leaving the allocations undistorted, including borrowing and lending, when the econ...
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作者：Richter, Bjoern; Schularick, Moritz; Shim, Ilhyock
作者单位：University of Bonn; Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Central banks increasingly rely on macroprudential measures to manage the financial cycle. However, the effects of such measures on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown. In this paper we quantify the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on output and inflation. We rely on a narrative identification approach based on detailed reading of policy-makers' objectives when implementing the measures. We find that over a four y...
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作者：Cerutti, Eugenio; Claessens, Stijn; Puy, Damien
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：Countries' gross capital inflows are not equally affected by changes in global conditions. Analyzing 21 advanced countries (ACs) and 33 emerging markets (EMs) between 2001 and 2015, we confirm that co-movements in capital inflows are concentrated in bank, portfolio bond, and portfolio equity flows to EMs. However, changes in global factors do not affect all EMs equally, even for the same type of flow. Investigating the characteristics of these sensitivities, we find that EMs relying more on gl...
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作者：Liu, Runjuan; Trefler, Daniel
作者单位：University of Alberta; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of Toronto; University of Toronto
摘要：We study how the rise of unaffiliated trade in services with China and India has impacted U.S. labour markets. The topic has two understudied aspects: it deals with service trade (most studies deal with manufacturing trade) and it examines the historical first of U.S. workers competing with educated but low-wage foreign workers. Our empirical agenda is made complicated by the endogeneity of service imports and the endogenous sorting of workers across occupations. To develop an estimation frame...
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作者：Saggi, Kamal; Wong, Woan Foong; Yildiz, Halis Murat
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; University of Oregon; Toronto Metropolitan University
摘要：In a three-country model of endogenous free trade agreements (FTAs), we study the effects of requiring ETA members to eliminate tariffs on one another, as is essentially stipulated under current WTO rules. We explain why, in the absence of such a requirement, FTAs members impose positive tariffs on each other even when maximizing their joint welfare. We show that requiring ETA members to eliminate internal tariffs induces them to lower their external tariffs. Such external trade liberalization...
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作者：Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The trade policies that will replace E.U. membership are uncertain, however, and speculation abounds that this uncertainty will cause immediate harm to the U.K. economy. In this paper, I use a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous export participation, and stochastic trade costs to quantify the impact of uncertainty about post-Brexit trade policies. I find that the total consumption-equival...
