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作者：Kohler, Wilhelm; Staehler, Frank
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Adelaide
摘要：Investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS) are supposed to protect foreign investors against domestic policies causing unjustified harm. This paper scrutinizes the effects of ISDS and national treatment provisions in a two-period model where foreign investment is subject to a hold-up problem. It shows that ISDS may increase welfare, but comes with additional regulatory distortions in the first period. A national treatment provision avoids these regulatory distortions, but implies entry distorti...
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作者：Erten, Bilge; Leight, Jessica; Tregenna, Fiona
作者单位：Northeastern University; American University; University of Johannesburg
摘要：Despite a large literature analyzing trade liberalization in developing countries, little evidence exists around its effects in sub-Saharan African economies characterized by high levels of baseline unemployment and weak manufacturing sectors. Using a local labor market approach, we investigate the causal effects of tariff reforms implemented in South Africa between 1994 and 2004 on labor market outcomes at the individual level. More specifically, we construct a district-level measure of expos...
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作者：Tarashev, Nikola; Zabai, Anna
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：Could a less conservative central bank, that is, one with a smaller aversion to inflation, be more likely to withstand pressure on its currency peg? Traditional currency-crisis models provide an unambiguous answer: No. We argue that this answer stems from the models' narrow focus on how a central bank's resistance to private-sector pressure affects output and inflation in the short run. The answer may reverse if pegging is a commitment device, serving to address domestic credibility issues in ...
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作者：Grundke, Robert; Moser, Christoph
作者单位：Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); Leibniz Institut fur Ost und Sudosteuropaforschung; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Can the enforcement of product standards be protectionism in disguise? This paper estimates the costs of non-compliance with U.S. product standards, using a new database on U.S. import refusals from 2002 to 2014. We find that import refusals decrease exports to the United States. This trade reducing effect is driven by developing countries and by refusals without any product sample analysis, in particular during the Subprime Crisis and its aftermath. We also provide evidence that given product...
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作者：Vicondoa, Alejandro
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：This paper identifies anticipated (news) and unanticipated (surprise) shocks to the U.S. Fed Funds rate using Fed Funds futures contracts, and assesses their propagation to emerging economies. Anticipated shocks are identified as the expected change in the Fed Funds rate orthogonal to expected U.S. business cycle conditions while unanticipated shocks are the one-step ahead forecast error. Anticipated shocks explain around half of the narrative series of U.S. monetary policy shocks. To identify...
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作者：Galiani, Sebastian; Torre, Ivan; Torrens, Gustavo
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; The World Bank; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a simple dynamic model of policy reform that captures some of the determinants that underlie the differences between the reform paths taken by a number of countries since the early 1990s. The model focuses on the interaction between domestic institutions and international organizations that promote reform, on the one hand, and the political incentives for reversing reforms, on the other. At equilibrium, there are three types of reform paths. A country can undergo a full-scale, lasti...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I analyze how partisan conflict about trade policy affects foreign direct investment flows to the US using a novel indicator, the Trade Partisan Conflict Index (TPCI). Partisan conflict is relevant for the evolution of cross-border capital flows because the expected returns on investment projects are less predictable when the timing, size, and composition of trade policy is uncertain. The trade partisan conflict index tracks the evolution of political disagreement among policymakers on topics ...
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作者：Blaum, Joaquin; Lelarge, Claire; Peters, Michael
作者单位：Brown University; Universite Paris Saclay; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Commonly used firm-based models of importing imply that firm productivity should have no effect on the allocation of expenditure across a common set of sourcing countries. Using French data, we show that this homotheticity property is soundly rejected: larger firms concentrate their import spending on their top varieties, holding the sourcing strategy fixed. To rationalize this finding, we propose a novel model of importing that features (i) a complementarity between firm productivity and inpu...
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作者：Bocola, Luigi; Bornstein, Gideon; Dovis, Alessandro
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A large literature has developed quantitative versions of the Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) model to analyze default episodes on external debt. In this paper, we study whether the same framework can be applied to the analysis of debt crises in which domestic public debt plays a prominent role. We consider a model where a government can issue debt to both domestic and foreign investors, and we derive conditions under which their sum is the relevant state variable for default incentives. We then ap...
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作者：Artuc, Erhan; Porto, Guido; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank; National University of La Plata
摘要：This paper characterizes the trade-off between the income gains and the inequality costs of trade using survey data for 54 developing countries. Tariff data on agricultural and manufacturing goods are combined with household survey data on detailed income and expenditure patterns to estimate the first-order effects of the elimination of import tariffs on household welfare. The paper assesses how these welfare effects vary across the distribution by estimating impacts on the consumption of trad...
