Economic and policy uncertainty: Aggregate export dynamics and the value of agreements*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carballo, Jeronimo; Handley, Kyle; Limao, Nuno
• 署名单位: University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103661
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: uncertainty; international trade; Trade policy; Trade agreements; INVESTMENT

摘要

We examine the interaction of economic and policy uncertainty in a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model. Uncertainty about foreign income, trade protection, and their interaction dampens export investment. Trade agreements can mitigate uncertainty and the probability of policy uncertainty shocks. We use firm data from 2003-2011 to establish new facts about U.S. export dynamics. These facts include a differentially lower export growth to non-preferential markets driven by the extensive margin at the start of the Great Trade Collapse. The structural model can explain this differential as a consequence of a shock to demand uncertainty. The shock was three times larger for non-preferential markets than preferential ones and it was later reversed, which is consistent with the timing of trade war fears in the crisis.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).