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作者：Gust, Christopher; Leduc, Sylvain; Vigfusson, Robert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Over the past 20 years, U.S. import prices have become less responsive to the exchange rate. We propose that a significant portion of this decline is a result of increased trade integration. To illustrate this effect, we develop an open economy DGE model featuring demand curves with variable elasticities so that a firm's pricing decision depends on its competitors' prices. As a result, a foreign exporter finds it optimal to vary its markup in response to shocks that change the exchange rate, i...
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作者：Auer, Raphael; Fischer, Andreas M.
作者单位：Princeton University; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：The effect of import competition from low-wage countries on U.S. inflationary pressure is estimated using a new methodology that identifies the causal response of prices to comparative advantage-induced supply shocks in these nations. The results of a panel covering 325 manufacturing industries from 1997 to 2006 show that imports from nine low-wage countries are associated with strong downward pressure on prices. When these nations capture a 1% share of the U.S. sector, the sector's producer p...
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作者：Ferrero, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：The US external deficits have been the most striking manifestation of global imbalances. This paper investigates the contribution of productivity growth, demographics and fiscal policy in accounting for the evolution of the US external imbalances against industrialized countries during the last three decades. Productivity growth plays a dominant role. Demographics explain a non-negligible and nearly permanent component of the US trade deficit. Furthermore, the international demographic transit...
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作者：Albuquerque, Rui
作者单位：Boston University
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作者：Olivei, Giovanni; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：Systematic differences in the timing of wage-setting decisions among industrialized countries provide an ideal framework to study the importance of wage rigidity for the transmission of monetary policy. Synchronization in wage-setting decisions is prevalent in Japan and the United States, yielding varying degrees of wage rigidity within the year: instead, in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom decisions are more uniformly spread over time. Exploiting within-year variation in the timing of ...
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作者：Freedman, Charles; Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas; Muir, Dirk; Mursula, Susanna
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Carleton University
摘要：The IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model is used to compute short-run multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 10 percentage point increase in the US debt to GDP ratio raises the US tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, t...
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作者：Ennis, Huberto M.; Keister, Todd
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; European University Institute
摘要：When policy makers have limited commitment power, self-fulfilling bank runs can arise as an equilibrium phenomenon. We study how such banking panics unfold in a version of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) model. A run in this setting is necessarily partial, with only some depositors participating. In addition, a run naturally occurs in waves, with each wave of withdrawals prompting a further response from policy makers. In this way, the interplay between the actions of depositors and the response...
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作者：Sabelhaus, John; Song, Jae
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Between 1980 and the early 1990s the variability of labor earnings growth rates across the prime-age working population fell significantly. This decline and timing are consistent with other macro and micro observations about growth variability that are collectively referred to as the Great Moderation. The variability of earnings growth is negatively correlated with age at any point in time, and the U.S. working age population got older during this period because the Baby Boom was aging. Howeve...
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作者：Iskrev, Nikolay
作者单位：Banco de Portugal
摘要：The issue of identification arises whenever, structural models are estimated. Lack of identification means that the empirical implications of some model parameters are either undetectable or indistinguishable from the implications of other parameters. Therefore, identifiability most be verified prior to estimation. This paper provides a simple method for conducting local identification analysis in linearized DSGE models, estimated in both full and limited information settings. In addition to e...
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作者：Uhlig, Harald
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper provides a model of the view that the 2008 financial crisis is reminiscent of a bank run, focussing on six stylized key features. In particular, core financial institutions have invested their funds in asset-backed securities rather than committed to long-term projects: in distress, these can potentially be sold to a large pool of outside investors at steep discounts. I consider two different motives for outside investors and their interaction with banks trading asset-backed securit...
