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作者：Dennis, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The monetary policy literature assumes increasingly that policy is formulated according to the timeless perspective (Woodford, 1999a). However, by treating appropriately the auxiliary state variables that characterize the timeless perspective equilibrium when evaluating policy performance, this paper shows that discretionary policymaking can be superior to timeless perspective policymaking and identifies model features that make this outcome more likely. Using standard New Keynesian DSGE model...
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作者：Belo, Frederico
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：A stochastic discount factor for asset returns is recovered from equilibrium marginal rates of transformation inferred from producers' first-order conditions. The marginal rate of transformation implies a novel macro-factor asset pricing model that does a reasonable job explaining the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns with plausible parameter Values. Using a flexible representation of firms' production technology, producers' ability to transform output across states of nature ...
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作者：Farmer, Roger E. A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This paper uses a model with a continuum of equilibrium steady state unemployment rates to explore the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The existence of multiple steady state equilibria is explained by the presence of search and recruiting costs. I use the model to explain the current financial crisis as a shift to a high unemployment equilibrium, induced by the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants about asset prices. I ask two questions. (1) Can fiscal policy help us out of the crisi...
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作者：Merz, Monika
作者单位：University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
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作者：Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：A productivity innovation reduces labor share at impact making it countercyclical it subsequently produces a long-lasting increase that peaks five years later at a level larger in absolute terms than the initial drop before slowly returning to average i e labor share overshoots We estimate a bivariate shock process to the production function that under competition in factor markets accounts for this overshooting We pose this process in an otherwise standard real business cycle economy and we f...
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作者：Blinder, Alan S.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：The Squam Lake Report is a volume by economists for economists. It offers the fruits of the labors of 15 top economists who met at Squam Lake, New Hampshire, to discuss financial reform. While somewhat disjointed, and avoiding many important issues, the book is nonetheless a tour du force. Its many recommendations derive from two basic principles: that reformers need to think systemically, and that third-party costs stemming from systemic risk need to be internalized. And its approach is just ...
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作者：Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto; Trigari, Antonella
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：We estimate the effects of fiscal policy on the labor market in US data. An increase in government spending of 1 percent of GDP generates output and unemployment multipliers, respectively, of about 1.2 percent (at one year) and 0.6 percentage points (at the peak). Each percentage point increase in GDP produces an increase in employment of about 1.3 million jobs. Total hours, employment and the job finding probability all rise, whereas the separation rate falls. A standard neoclassical model au...
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作者：Dong, Mei; Jiang, Janet Hua
作者单位：University of Manitoba
摘要：The set of incentive-feasible allocations is examined in a dynamic quasi-linear environment where agents lack commitment and have private information over their idiosyncratic characteristics. When record-keeping is available, the first-best allocation is implementable in a set of sufficiently patient economies. When record-keeping is limited to one money, this set is strictly smaller except when private information is absent. When record-keeping is expanded, but limited to two monies, the set ...
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作者：Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The so-called Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks should equal the yield on nominal Treasury bonds, or at least that the two should be highly correlated. In US data there is indeed a strikingly high time series correlation between the yield on nominal bonds and the dividend yield on equities. This positive correlation is often attributed to the fact that both bond and equity yields comove strongly and positively with expected inflation. Contrary to some of the ex...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：A structural factor model for 112 US monthly macroeconomic series is used to study the effects of monetary policy. Monetary policy shocks are identified using a standard recursive scheme, in which the impact effects on both industrial production and prices are zero. The main findings are the following. First, the maximal effect oil bilateral real exchange rates is observed on impact, so that the delayed overshooting puzzle disappears. Second, after a contractionary shock prices fall at all hor...
