Global effects of fiscal stimulus during the crisis

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Freedman, Charles; Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas; Muir, Dirk; Mursula, Susanna
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Carleton University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.05.003
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 506-526
• 关键词: Fiscal stimulus; Crowding-out; Financial crisis; Non-Ricardian households; Government deficits; government debt; Macro-financial linkages

摘要

The IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model is used to compute short-run multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 10 percentage point increase in the US debt to GDP ratio raises the US tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, thereby reducing US and rest of the world output by 0.3-0.6 percent and 0.2-0.3 percent, respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.