A structural decomposition of the US trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ferrero, Andrea
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.04.004
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 478-490
• 关键词: global imbalances; productivity growth; Demographic trends; fiscal policy; World real interest rates

摘要

The US external deficits have been the most striking manifestation of global imbalances. This paper investigates the contribution of productivity growth, demographics and fiscal policy in accounting for the evolution of the US external imbalances against industrialized countries during the last three decades. Productivity growth plays a dominant role. Demographics explain a non-negligible and nearly permanent component of the US trade deficit. Furthermore, the international demographic transition is crucial for large US external imbalances to be consistent with the persistent decline of world real interest rates observed in the data. Fiscal policy is of minor importance. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.