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作者：Bodenstein, Martin; Hebden, James; Nunes, Ricardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：As the nominal interest rate cannot fall below zero, a central bank with imperfect credibility faces a significant challenge to stabilize the economy in a New Keynesian model during a large recession. We characterize the optimal monetary policy at the zero lower bound for the nominal interest rate if credibility is imperfect. Confronting monetary policy communication of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Swedish Riksbank with such a framework, the credibility of both institutions is shown to hav...
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作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Sims, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; RWTH Aachen University
摘要：Is impacting confidence an important channel by which government spending shocks affect economic activity? In a standard structural VAR, an empirical measure of confidence does not significantly react to spending shocks and output multipliers are around one. In a non-linear VAR, confidence rises following an increase in spending during periods of economic slack and multipliers are much larger. The systematic response of confidence is irrelevant for the output multiplier during normal times, bu...
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作者：Ohanian, Lee E.; Raffo, Andrea
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We build a dataset of quarterly hours worked for 14 OECD countries. We document that hours are as volatile as output, that a large fraction of labor adjustment takes place along the intensive margin, and that the volatility of hours relative to output has increased over time. We use these data to reassess the Great Recession and prior recessions. The Great Recession in many countries is a puzzle in that labor wedges are small, while those in the U.S. Great Recession - and those in previous Eur...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Mannheim
摘要：We consider optimal monetary stabilization policy in a New Keynesian model with explicit microfoundations, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs close enough to model-consistency. We show how to characterize robustly optimal policy without restricting consideration a priori to a particular parametric family of candidate policy rules. We s...
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作者：Behrens, Kristian; Murata, Yasusada
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Nihon University
摘要：We analyze the impact of globalization on individual gains from trade in a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition featuring product diversity, pro-competitive effects and income heterogeneity between and within countries. Although trade reduces markups in both countries in our framework, its impact on variety depends on their relative position in the world income distribution: product diversity in the lower income country always expands, while that in the higher income country m...
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作者：Berentsen, Aleksander; Breu, Mariana Rojas; Shi, Shouyong
作者单位：University of Basel; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; University of Toronto
摘要：Many countries simultaneously suffer from high inflation, low growth and poorly developed financial sectors. In this paper, we integrate a microfounded model of money and finance into a model of endogenous growth to examine the effects of inflation on welfare, growth and the size of the financial sector. A novel feature is that the innovation sector is decentralized. Financial intermediaries arise endogenously to provide liquidity to this sector. Consistent with the data but in contrast to pre...
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作者：Araujo, Luis; Camargo, Braz; Minetti, Raoul; Puzzello, Daniela
作者单位：Michigan State University; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：Lagos and Wright (2005) introduced an influential model of monetary exchange in which trade alternates between centralized and decentralized markets and money is essential. A limitation of their model and of the literature that follows is that they do not provide a microfoundation for the process of exchange in the centralized market. In this paper, we show that how one models exchange in the centralized market matters for the essentiality of money by describing the centralized market as a str...
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作者：Drechsler, Itamar
作者单位：New York University
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作者：Pieschacon, Anamaria
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：The value of fiscal discipline is assessed by analyzing the role of fiscal policy as a transmission mechanism of oil price shocks in oil-exporting small open economies. Fiscal policy is an important propagation channel. Taking policy as given by the data, the model can successfully explain the responses of key macroeconomic variables, but it is unable to explain these responses under counterfactual fiscal frameworks. Interestingly, fiscal policy also seems capable of regulating the size of pas...
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作者：Davis, Steven J.; Faberman, R. Jason; Haltiwanger, John
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Many theoretical models of labor market search imply a tight link between worker flows (hires and separations) and job gains and losses at the employer level. We use rich establishment-level data to assess several theoretical models and to study the relationship between worker flows and jobs flows. Hires, quits, and layoffs exhibit strong, highly nonlinear relationships to employer growth rates in the cross section. Simple statistical models of these relationships greatly improve our ability t...
