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作者：Lustig, Hanno; Verdelhan, Adrien
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In the United States and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the expected returns on stocks, adjusted for volatility, are much higher in recessions than in expansions. We consider feasible trading strategies that buy or sell shortly after business cycle turning points that are identifiable in real time and involve holding periods of up to 1 year. The observed business cycle changes in expected returns are not spuriously driven by changes in expected n...
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作者：Shimer, Robert
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Real wage rigidities cause jobless recoveries. Suppose that a one-time shock reduces the capital stock below trend. If wages are flexible, they decline and employment increases at the moment of the shock, before both revert back to normal levels as the economy grows back to trend. If wages are completely rigid and the labor market is otherwise frictionless, the shock causes a proportional and permanent decline in employment, capital, output, consumption, and investment relative to trend. In a ...
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作者：Johnson, Timothy C.
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：Using a long time-series of U.S. income inequality, I find that the market pays higher prices for assets that hedge against increased inequality. This is consistent with the prediction of an incomplete-markets model incorporating preferences over both comparative and noncomparative consumption goods when the weight on the former is large. The model implies that the time-series properties of the premium can be used to identify the substitutability of these two sources of utility. There is evide...
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作者：[Anonymous]
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作者：Elsby, Michael W. L.
作者单位：University of Edinburgh; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Krause, Michael U.; Uhlig, Harald
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; University of Chicago
摘要：Since the so-called Hartz IV reforms around 2005 and during the global crisis of 2008/2009, the German labor market featured mainly declining unemployment rates. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous skills to explore the role of structural and cyclical policies for this performance. Calibrating unemployment benefits to approximate legislation before and after the reforms, we find a large reduction in unemployment and its duration, with the transition concluding after about...
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作者：Karantounias, Anastasios G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
