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作者：Mangin, Sephorah; Sedlacek, Petr
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：The labor share fluctuates over the business cycle. To explain this behavior, we develop a novel model featuring direct competition between heterogeneous firms to hire workers. This simultaneously endogenizes both average match productivity and the division of output between workers and firms. In existing matches, wages partly reflect labor market conditions at the time of hiring. A positive TFP shock therefore reduces the aggregate labor share, making it counter-cyclical. However, greater com...
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作者：Aum, Sangmin; Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim); Shin, Yongseok
作者单位：Korea Development Institute (KDI); University of London; Queen Mary University London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Complementarity across occupations and industries implies that the relative size of those with high productivity growth shrinks, reducing their contributions toward aggregate productivity growth and thereby resulting in its slowdown. This force, especially the shrinkage of occupations with above-average productivity growth through routinization, was present since the 1980s. Through the end of the 1990s, it was countervailed by the extraordinary productivity growth in the computer industry, of ...
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作者：Aslan, Hadiye; Kumar, Praveen
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：What are the real effects of forced sales of corporate securities? Our theoretical analysis shows that model uncertainty can generate distorted negative (positive) capital investment effects during price declines (reversals) in equilibrium when there is information feedback from financial markets. Empirically, we find that forced sales of corporate bonds by financial institutions had a significant negative impact on the capital investment and product market competitiveness measured by market s...
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作者：Alon, Titan; Berger, David; Dent, Robert; Pugsley, Benjamin
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Notre Dame
摘要：Declining firm entry and the aging incumbent firms have meaningful implications for sluggish U.S. aggregate productivity growth. We provide a framework to characterize the contributions to industry productivity growth across the firm age distribution then apply it to firm-level Census data. Several findings emerge: the relationship between firm age and productivity growth is downward sloping and convex; the magnitudes are substantial but fade quickly; selection and reallocation predominantly d...
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作者：Argente, David; Lee, Munseob; Moreira, Sara
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Northwestern University
摘要：We use detailed product- and firm-level data to study the sources of innovation and the patterns of productivity growth over the period from 2007 to 2013. We document several new facts on product reallocation. First, every quarter around 8 percent of products are reallocated in the economy, and the entry and exit of products are prevalent among different types of firms. Second, most reallocation of products occurs within the boundaries of the firm. The entries and exits of firms only make a sm...
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作者：Mackowiak, Bartosz; Wiederholt, Mirko
作者单位：European Central Bank; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：A new view of crises is proposed: A rare event occurs, consciously unprepared agents take bad actions, and catastrophic consequences follow. We model agents who prepare to act in different contingencies. They can process only a finite amount of information and thus cannot prepare perfectly for all contingencies. In equilibrium, agents equate the probability-weighted expected loss due to suboptimal action across contingencies, implying that the expected loss in a rare event is orders of magnitu...
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作者：Berg, Andrew; Buffie, Edward F.; Zanna, Luis-Felipe
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics may be leading to a new industrial revolution. This paper presents a model with the minimum necessary features to analyze the implications for inequality and output. Two assumptions are key: robot capital is distinct from traditional capital in its degree of substitutability with human labor; and only capitalists and skilled workers save. We analyze a range of variants that reflect widely different views of how automation may transform the labor...
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作者：Kopytov, Alexandr; Roussanov, Nikolai; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Cornell University
摘要：Recent empirical evidence suggests that skill-biased technological change accelerated during the Great Recession. We use a neoclassical growth framework to analyze how business cycle fluctuations interact with a long-run transition towards a skill-intensive technology. In the model, the adoption of new technologies by firms and the acquisition of new skills by workers are concentrated in downturns due to low opportunity costs. As a result, shocks lead to deeper recessions, but they also speed ...
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作者：Bleck, Alexander; Liu, Xuewen
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We develop a general equilibrium model to analyze the interaction between two sectors with differing degree of financial friction in the context of liquidity injections (credit expansion). We show that excessive liquidity injection can overheat the sector with lower friction, crowding liquidity out of the sector with higher friction. The crowding-out manifests in a self-reinforcing spiral because of feedback between liquidity inflows, asset prices, and collateral values. The paper highlights t...
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作者：Rocheteau, Guillaume; Wright, Randall; Xiao, Sylvia Xiaolin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Peking University; Auckland University of Technology
摘要：In an open market operation, the central bank swaps currency for bonds. We show how injecting money in this way is different from transfers, the way policy is usually formulated. The model captures liquidity explicitly by modeling the roles of assets in frictional exchange. Under various specifications for market structure and the acceptability or pledgeability of assets, we discuss implications for the Fisher and quantity equations, the possibility of negative nominal yields, liquidity traps,...
