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作者：Fukui, Masao
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Systemic risk builds up during booms in an economy featuring asymmetric information in asset markets, where investors' hidden effort choices endogenously determine asset quality distribution. Higher asset prices during booms induce more investors to sell their assets, which lowers their incentive to improve quality. This quality deterioration in turn makes the economy vulnerable to future exogenous shocks because market breakdowns become more likely. Private agents do not internalize that thei...
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作者：Ippolito, Filippo; Ozdagli, Ali K.; Perez-Orive, Ander
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Unlike other debt, most bank loans have floating rates mechanically tied to monetary policy rates. Hence, monetary policy can directly affect the liquidity and balance sheet strength of firms through existing loans. We show that firms-especially financially constrained firms-with more unhedged loans display a stronger sensitivity of their stock price, cash holdings, inventory, and fixed capital investment to monetary policy. This effect disappears when policy rates are at the zero lower bound,...
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作者：Kasa, Kenneth; Lei, Xiaowen
作者单位：Simon Fraser University
摘要：The dynamics of wealth inequality are studied in a continuous-time Blanchard/Yaari model. Investment returns are idiosyncratic and subject to Knightian uncertainty. In response, agents formulate robust portfolio policies. These policies are nonhomothetic; wealthy agents invest a higher fraction of their wealth in uncertain assets yielding higher mean returns. This produces a feedback mechanism that amplifies inequality. It also produces an accelerated rate of convergence, which helps resolve a...
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作者：Sterk, Vincent; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Using a tractable OLG model with government debt, we study a redistribution channel for the transmission of monetary policy. Expansionary open-market operations generate a negative wealth effect, increasing households' incentives to save and pushing down the real interest rate. This leads to a substitution towards durables, generating a temporary boom in the durable-good sector. With search and matching frictions, the fall in interest rates causes an increase in labor demand, raising aggregate...
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作者：Cao, Dan; L'Huillier, Jean-Paul
作者单位：Georgetown University; Brandeis University
摘要：The Great Recession, the Great Depression, and the Japanese Slump of the 1990s were all preceded by periods of major technological innovation, which happened about 10 years before the start of the decline in economic activity. We estimate a model with noisy news. We find that beliefs about long-run income adjust to permanent shifts in productivity with an important delay. The estimation tells a common and simple story for the observed dynamics of productivity and consumption on a 20 to 25 year...
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作者：Hershbein, Brad
作者单位：W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
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作者：Arawatari, Ryo; Hori, Takeo; Mino, Kazuo
作者单位：Nagoya University; Institute of Science Tokyo; Tokyo Institute of Technology; Doshisha University
摘要：The relationship between inflation and growth is examined in an R&D-based model of endogenous growth in which the R&D abilities of agents are heterogeneous. We analytically demonstrate that if the distribution of ability has a fat and long tail, the relationship between inflation and growth becomes nonlinear; the negative relationship between inflation and growth is weaker in the heterogeneous ability economy than it is in the homogeneous ability economy for low inflation, whereas the opposite...
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作者：He, Hui; Huang, Feng; Liu, Zheng; Zhu, Dongming
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：China's large-scale reform of state-owned enterprises (SOE) in the late 1990s provides a natural experiment for estimating precautionary savings. Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed similar job security as government employees. The reform caused massive SOE layoffs, but government employees kept their iron rice bowl. The changes in the relative unemployment risks for SOE workers provide a clean identification of income uncertainty. With self-selection biases mitigated by focusing on governm...
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作者：Ready, Robert C.
作者单位：University of Oregon
摘要：High levels of uncertainty about long-run oil supplies from 2005 to 2012 coincided with significant changes in oil futures markets. Motivated by this fact, this paper provides new evidence on the relations between oil consumption, oil prices, and economic growth, and builds on this evidence to develop a quantitative real business cycle model to study oil price risk. Calibrated model results can match relations between oil prices and economic quantities, and can rationalize behavior in equity a...
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作者：Siu, Henry E.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research
