Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes)

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Berg, Andrew; Buffie, Edward F.; Zanna, Luis-Felipe
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.05.014
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 117-148
• 关键词: Technological change; robots; Artificial intelligence; GROWTH; Income distribution; INEQUALITY

摘要

Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics may be leading to a new industrial revolution. This paper presents a model with the minimum necessary features to analyze the implications for inequality and output. Two assumptions are key: robot capital is distinct from traditional capital in its degree of substitutability with human labor; and only capitalists and skilled workers save. We analyze a range of variants that reflect widely different views of how automation may transform the labor market. Our main results are surprisingly robust: automation is good for growth and bad for equality; in the benchmark model real wages fall in the short run and eventually rise, but eventually can easily take generations. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.